779 
FXUS63 KEAX 061131
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 AM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022

.Discussion...
Issued at 343 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2022

Key Points:

* Near seasonal temperatures through mid week with periodic chances 
  of showers and thunderstorms. 

* Cold front is expected to move through Wednesday, leading to 
  cooler temperatures late week into the first half of next weekend. 

Detailed discussion... 

Lower than normal confidence forecast with series of disturbances 
moving through the region leading to periodic chances of showers and 
thunderstorms. 

Trailing stratiform MCS is expected to bring rainfall to areas south 
of highway 50 this morning.  With daytime heating, expect atmosphere 
to re-destabilize ahead of a weak cold front approaching from the 
north.  With weak to non-existent capping inversion north of highway 
36, could see a few thunderstorms develop near the Iowa Missouri 
border sliding southeast through the afternoon and evening hours. 
With 1-2K J/KG of CAPE and 0-6 km bulk shear around 30-35 knots 
could have a strong storm or two if the storms are able to organize. 
 
Shortwave over the Pacific NW this morning is expected to move 
towards the central plains today and result in the development of 
showers and thunderstorms across eastern Colorado this afternoon, 
moving across Kansas overnight tonight.  Questions remain in how 
efficient the cold front moving through the area on Monday will be. 
The greatest instability on Tuesday appears to be south of the 
front, which is expected to be across southern Missouri by that 
point.  Models are offering a variety of solutions for Tuesday, 
anything from completely dry and stable, to showers and 
thunderstorms.  Have focused higher chance pops south of I-70 closer 
to the front.  

Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms are possible 
Tuesday night and then again Thursday night as shortwaves move 
through in quasi zonal flow.  

Cold front behind the wave Tuesday night is expected to move through 
the region on Wednesday, though the cooler air is expected to lag 
behind the front for a day or so.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2022

Shower activity south of I-70 this morning is expected to continue
to shift east. Could see temporary reductions in visibility in the
rain. Could be some lower clouds this morning in the 1-2K ft agl
but is expected to be more scattered than a ceiling. Could see
isolated-scattered thunderstorms develop after 18Z near the
Iowa/Missouri border, spreading southeast through the afternoon
hours.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...BT
Aviation...BT