618 
FXUS62 KMLB 300727
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
327 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022

.DISCUSSION...

Current-Tonight...Late-evening lingering convection over South FL 
and the Atlantic waters has decayed as of the early morning hours, 
with debris low/mid-level cloud cover spreading over the southern 
third of the peninsula. A weak trough axis offshore from central FL 
could prompt an early start to shower activity over the next several 
hours, as additional moisture lifts northward from the Caribbean and 
Bahamas.

Another messy afternoon of sea breeze driven convection is in store 
which could be enhanced by the arrival of the additional moisture 
from the south. Environmental parameters continue to support 
marginally severe thunderstorms, so wind gusts near 60 mph and coin 
sized hail will all be on the table today as in days past. Highest 
confidence in activity will be at the convergence of the west and 
east coast sea breeze boundaries today which looks to be favored on 
the western side of the peninsula, however scattered showers and 
storm will develop as the boundary moves inland beginning in the 
early afternoon, with coverage becoming numerous towards the 
Kissimmee River basin. Temps at 500 mb have maintained a slight 
cooling trend, forecast to be -11C by the mid afternoon, aiding in 
hail formation. Another potential for heavy downpours with 2-4" of 
rain in a short period of time contributing to flooding. All 
convection should wane or move beyond the forecast area by sunset, 
with lingering isolated storms over the Atlantic once again. With 
the holiday weekend marking the unofficial start to summer, the 
weather pattern has taken note, so plan for possible thunderstorms 
during your afternoon picnic celebrations.

Highs today will reach the mid to upper 80s at the coast with the 
influence of the sea breeze, but climb above 90 degrees across the 
interior. Another humid overnight with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Tue-Tue Night...Aloft, a general weak, troughy pattern continues 
with occasional impulses traversing the area and 500 mb temps 
between -9.0C and -11.0C. PWAT values will be a little lower at 1.40-
1.70" across east central FL. Early morning light easterly flow will 
increase to 10-15 mph with some higher gusts. The onshore flow will 
remain fairly deep and the ECSB will develop and push inland fairly 
quickly during the day. Morning/early afternoon showers/storms will 
favor the coastal waters and coastal counties, then highest 
coverage/strongest convection will focus inland during the mid to 
late afternoon. PoPs 40-50pct, except 60pct well inland and south of 
Orlando toward Lake Okeechobee. Primary storm threats will be heavy 
downpours, strong gusty winds, lightning strikes, and small hail. 

It will continue to be warm and humid, with highs reaching the M80s 
at the immediate coast and U80s to around 90 further into the 
interior. Peak heat index values in the L90s at the coast and M90s 
well inland.

Wed-Mon...The GFS has lower mid-level pressures near the FL east 
coast (early Wed) and remains much more eager to translate vorticity 
maxima/tropical low pressure northeastward across Cuba/FL Straits 
and eventually Bahamas than the ECMWF (further north still). The 
biggest issue to sort out remains timing/placement/strength/movement 
of low pressure development between the Bay of Campeche/Yucatan 
Peninsula/north Caribbean this weekend. The ECM (00Z), though, has 
sped up its solution with the low on the WCFL coast Sat overnight 
and continues to trek NE across the peninsula on Sun and off the 
ECFL coast Sun evening/night. The ECMWF's solution would provide a 
much wetter scenario for ECFL. Regardless, much uncertainty remains 
with this system and the extended. NHC continues to watch this area 
and has a tropical formation chance of 30pct through 5 days.

At any rate, we will still see a predominant onshore flow across 
ECFL into at least early Thu, then the wind field becomes a bit more 
weaker/variable only to revert back to onshore, once again, this 
weekend, though still a very light flow. As we have been advertising 
the greatest chance for convection at night and in the morning 
periods should be across the coast and an increasing threat over the 
interior (into WCFL) in the afternoon and early evening periods. 
Greatest chances for appreciable rainfall will be south of Orlando 
and across the interior, though depending on tropical development we 
could see an increase in both moisture/precip chances Sat-Mon. Also, 
the models continue to show some weak troughiness aloft across the 
central peninsula into Thu that could enhance daily convection.

High temperatures will average M-U80s at the coast and U80s to L90s 
for the interior. Lows remain consistent in the U60s to L70s; M70s 
for barrier islands.

&&

.AVIATION...Another round of diurnal sea-breeze driven thunderstorms 
this afternoon after 18Z. Additional moisture lifting northward 
could spark early morning shower and storm activity for Treasure 
Coast sites, but confidence is too low to include beyond VCSH. 
Included TEMPO groups for interior terminals and sites south of KMLB 
for afternoon convection, but further refinement of timing will be 
necessary for erratic outflow boundary movement. Activity will decay 
near 00Z, with lingering low clouds possible overnight. VFR outside 
of thunderstorms today.

&&

.MARINE...Current-Tonight...Generally favorable boating conditions 
will continue for this long holiday weekend with southeast winds 10-
15 knots and seas 2-3 ft. Isolated to scattered showers and 
thunderstorms over the Atlantic waters today and through the 
overnight will be capable of producing gusty winds and locally 
higher seas.

Tue-Fri...Continued generally favorable boating conditions outside 
of showers and storms. A deeper onshore (ERLY) flow regime continues 
into Wed evening, veers more SERLY Thu evening, then SWRLY Thu 
night. Wind speeds AOB 15 kts. Seas average 2-3 ft. However, onshore 
moving, SCT showers and ISOLD lightning storms will remain in the 
forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  71  86  71 /  50  30  40  10 
MCO  91  71  89  71 /  60  20  50  10 
MLB  85  72  85  72 /  50  30  50  20 
VRB  85  73  85  70 /  60  40  50  20 
LEE  92  71  89  71 /  70  20  50  10 
SFB  90  71  88  70 /  50  20  50  10 
ORL  90  73  89  73 /  60  20  50  10 
FPR  85  74  85  70 /  60  40  50  20 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM....Sedlock
AVIATION...Smith