310 
FXUS64 KMAF 240535
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1235 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

VFR CIGs expected at most TAF sites. The exception will be HOB/MAF
for several hours around 12Z when MVFR CIGs arrive. Convection is
exiting the TAF sites and should not be a concern for the next 12
hours. More TS will develop after 18Z tomorrow but will not put in
the TAFs at this time due to low confidence in timing and
location. A cold front will shift winds from the northwest at all
TAF sites by 18Z.

Hennig

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

Upper trough over SD/NE this afternoon extends SW back to AZ and 
will move across NM tonight into the Panhandle. On Tuesday a
closed low will develop in the base of the trough over CO/NM and
it will roll into Wrn OK/KS Tuesday night.

Mild May temperatures this afternoon will fall into the 50s and
60s tonight. A cold front will move down into the area late 
tonight and early Tuesday. Highs tomorrow will be in the 70s 
north, 80s central, with 90s along the Pecos and Rio Grande. 

Have had showers and thunderstorms all morning over southern CWA 
with some recent afternoon convection east of MAF as daytime 
heating and good moisture combine. Dewpts in the 40s west with 50s 
and 60s elsewhere but no dryline to speak of as moisture pushed 
back against higher elevations. The best chance for rain with this
event will be the rest of this afternoon and this evening over 
the Lower Trans Pecos and NE Permian Basin. Rain chances decrease 
late tonight and Tuesday as they shift east of the area. 
Unfortunately unless something develops right over the Central 
Permian Basin much of it may get missed by rain. 

Could see a low end high wind event at GDP with the front Tuesday 
night, will leave watch in effect.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through  Sunday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

In the wake of Tuesday night's cold front, continued northerly
flow and cold advection Wednesday will result in another day of 
below normal temperatures in the upper 70s and 80s for most. Some 
lingering showers may be possible across eastern portions of the 
area Wednesday morning, though a bulk of any lingering 
precipitation associated with the departing trough will be to the 
east of the region. The cooler weather on Wednesday will continue 
into Wednesday night, despite light southerly return flow 
commencing, with lows remaining below normal in the 50s for most.

Thursday onward through the Memorial Day Weekend, hot and dry will 
once again be the rule across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas.
Midlevel ridging will develop over the region Thursday into 
Friday, and along with southerly surface flow, temperatures will 
quickly rebound into the upper 80s to mid 90s for most on 
Thursday, and mid 90s and lower 100s on Friday. Over the weekend, 
the next in the series of troughs will progress from the Pacific 
Northwest into the Rockies, serving to flatten the ridge aloft, 
and resulting in zonal flow over the region. This zonal flow and
concurrent transition to westerly to southwesterly downslope
surface flow will result in highs in the upper 90s and 100s 
areawide Saturday and Sunday, with the hottest temperatures over 
110 degrees expected through the Rio Grande Valley in the Big 
Bend. These hot temperatures will continue into Memorial Day, with
a slight cool down possible by next Tuesday. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               51  79  55  91 /  30  10   0   0 
Carlsbad                 49  80  53  95 /  10   0   0   0 
Dryden                   62  83  60  90 /  10  10   0   0 
Fort Stockton            53  80  58  95 /  10  10   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass           48  78  57  89 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobbs                    45  78  52  91 /  20  10   0   0 
Marfa                    45  82  46  91 /   0   0   0   0 
Midland Intl Airport     52  79  57  92 /  20  10   0   0 
Odessa                   53  79  58  92 /  20  10   0   0 
Wink                     52  82  55  95 /  10  10   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Watch from this evening through late tonight for 
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....84
AVIATION...10