AFOS product AFDTFX
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDTFX
Product Timestamp: 2022-05-07 20:59 UTC

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FXUS65 KTFX 072059
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
259 PM MDT Sat May 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

Cool and unsettled weather prevails through Monday. Periods of
snow are expected across Southwest Montana. Temperatures begin to
moderate with fair weather on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Cool and breezy conditions prevail behind a departing shortwave
trough. Scattered showers and a few low-topped thunderstorms 
developed this afternoon associated with steep mid level lapse 
rates. This activity was short lived where it occurred, but a few
thunderstorms produced small hail and wind gusts to 50mph. Overall
expect this activity will continue into the overnight hours, but
less widespread and with less thunder.  

Periods of snow continue tonight and into Sunday across Southwest
Montana, as a series of minor shortwave traverse through the cool
cyclonic flow aloft. A winter weather advisory has been added for
this region tonight through Monday morning. Snow is not expected
to accumulate on roadways during the daytime Sunday, but the peak
snowfall rates are expected Sunday night into Monday morning.
Thus, at least minor impacts to travel are expected by Monday
morning, with snow levels down to Southwest valley elevations.
This period of heavier snowfall rates and lowering snow levels 
are associated with stronger shortwave trough and a passing 
Pacific front. Snowfall rates decrease with rising snow levels 
again during the day on Monday. Fair weather returns to most of 
the region on Tuesday as shortwave ridging aloft occurs with an 
increasing southwest flow aloft.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon as a
weakening shortwave trough advances from the Great Basin into
eastern Montana. As this system moves further east, it begins to
redevelop and turn north into Canada. Wrap around moisture and 
instability associated with this system will keep showers in the 
forecast through the end of next week. 

&&

.AVIATION...
528 AM MDT Fri May 6 2022 (07/12Z TAF period)

Central and northern Montana...Lingering widely scattered showers 
across the region through 08/0000; expect VFR ceilings and 
visibilities, but MVFR ceilings possible at KLWT until 07/2200. 
Skies will generally clear out overnight.

Southwest Montana...Showers this afternoon with a chance of 
thunderstorms through around 08/0200. After that time MVFR and IFR 
ceilings and visibility are possible in rain and snow showers 
through the remainder of the period. dwb

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation 
weather and hazard information. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  34  54  31  52 /   0  10  30  20 
CTB  34  51  29  50 /  10  10  10  20 
HLN  36  52  31  52 /  30  40  40  20 
BZN  32  48  27  47 /  50  80  80  40 
WYS  25  44  19  39 /  90  90  80  90 
DLN  29  45  23  44 /  60  90  70  50 
HVR  36  57  33  53 /  10  10  20  30 
LWT  32  50  29  48 /  10  40  60  40 

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Monday 
Beaverhead...Gallatin...Madison.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls