430 
FXUS64 KLUB 071737
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1237 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022

.AVIATION...
IFR ceilings have dissipated at all terminals and VFR conditions
will prevail through this TAF period. With temperatures
approaching the century mark this afternoon high density altitudes
will result in poorer small aircraft performance. Winds will
become breezy this afternoon and remain breezy for much of this
TAF period. There may be a small window in which LLWS could
develop at the area terminals late tonight depending on how much
surface winds diminish as 40kt winds around 1000 feet AGL develop.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 AM CDT Sat May 7 2022/ 

SHORT TERM...
Hot and dry weather will dominate the short term forecast period 
with near-record high temperatures expected today. Weak quasi-zonal 
flow aloft this morning will back slightly to a more west-
southwesterly direction by this evening as an upper ridge axis 
builds to our east and longwave troughing deepens over the west 
coast. At the surface, 07z analysis depicts easterly surface flow 
and low level moisture spreading westward as surface high pressure 
lingers over the ArkLaTex region, with most areas along and east of 
I-27 expected to see dewpoints reach near or just above 50F during 
the early morning hours. This low level moisture will quickly be 
pushed back eastward as southwesterly surface flow re-establishes by 
late morning courtesy of deepening surface troughing over SE 
Colorado. Forecast soundings depict very deep mixing this afternoon, 
with a very dry and hot day in store for the region given persistent 
downsloping southwesterly surface flow. Most locations will see 
temperatures top 100F, with Lubbock's record high of 100 degrees set 
in 2009 well within reach. The record high of 105 degrees at 
Childress will likely remain out of reach as a slightly cooler 
easterly wind component holds on for much of the day.

Given the increasing breezes and well above normal temperatures, 
critical fire weather conditions are expected area-wide today as 
very dry air mixes to the surface resulting in relative humidity 
values as low as 3 percent this afternoon. A relatively weak wind 
field through much of the troposphere will keep winds generally near 
or below 20 mph, preventing more extreme fire weather conditions. 
Critical conditions are nevertheless expected given continued 
extremely dry fuel states and extremely low RH. Winds are expected 
to retain a dominant westerly component overnight, keeping any 
notable low level moisture confined well to our east. With continued 
westerly breezes, very mild low temperatures are also expected 
tonight, with most locations seeing lows in the mid to upper 60s 
under mostly clear skies. /DWK 

LONG TERM...
Southwest flow aloft will be firmly in control through at least the 
early part of next week leading to continued very warm temperatures. 
A deep upper level trough will cover the entirety of western North 
America creating this southwest flow aloft. Strong surface lee 
troughing/cyclogenesis will occur each afternoon on Sunday and Monday 
bringing breezy downsloping winds and near record temperatures. 
Extremely dry conditions will also accompany the warm temperatures 
and breezy winds. A short wave will dive down from the Pacific 
Northwest into California just off of the west coast beginning on 
Tuesday. This will begin to advect low level moisture back into the 
area on Tuesday with a classic springtime sloshing dryline. This 
pattern would generally favor the holding in of low level moisture 
back into eastern New Mexico. Out ahead of this stronger short wave, 
a series of weaker short waves will be moving through the southwest 
flow aloft. However, the details of these minor features are too far 
out to resolve on this time scale. These minor disturbances combined 
with the moist low level air in place may create chances of severe 
thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. The aforementioned stronger 
short wave will eject out onto the Plains on Thursday potentially 
bringing another afternoon of severe thunderstorms. CIPS analog 
guidance supports several days of potentially severe weather.

FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected area-wide today as 
very dry air overspreads the area coincident with well above normal 
temperatures. Southwest winds will increase by late morning and 
persist through this evening across most of the region, generally 
remaining near or just below 20 mph at the 20-foot level with gusts 
to 30 mph. Winds will remain south-southeasterly across the far 
southeastern Texas Panhandle throughout the day today. Very deep 
daytime mixing to 15k feet and minimum RH values near 3 percent are 
expected across the Caprock and Rolling Plains, with slightly lower 
mixing heights and minimum RH near 10 percent expected across the 
far SE TX Panhandle. These conditions combined with ERCs above the 
90th percentile will result in maximum RFTI values of 4 to 6 across 
most of the region this afternoon and evening. Winds will weaken 
slightly late this evening, remaining generally westerly overnight 
at 10-15 mph at the 20-foot level. Overnight RH recovery is expected 
to be extremely poor tonight with maximum RH values remaining below 
20 percent across most of the area.

Critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue area
wide for Sunday and possibly Monday. Conditions will be fairly
similar both afternoons with southwest winds around 20 mph at the
20 foot level with near record temperatures and extremely dry
surface air.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>044.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night 
for TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

58/30/01