985 
FXUS64 KOUN 071145
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
645 AM CDT Sat May 7 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Sat May 7 2022

Mostly clear skies and dry conditions will persist through the day 
on Saturday, as upper level ridging behind the exiting trough will 
continue to keep things stable throughout Oklahoma and western north 
Texas. As the next longwave trough begins to approach in the 
northwest United States, lee side cyclogenesis in the Rockies will 
tighten the surface pressure gradient in the central plains. 
Southeasterly surface winds will increase throughout Saturday, which 
will increase the mixing down from a southeast/northwest oriented 
low level thermal ridge over the region, and support the continued 
increase in high temperatures. Highs will range from the lower 80s 
in north central Oklahoma, to the low 100s in western north Texas. 

Fire weather concerns will begin to increase Saturday afternoon, 
mainly in western portions of north Texas where drier air will be 
advected in coincident with the 100+ degree temperatures. Saturday 
evening, the upper level ridge begins to weaken, with shortwaves 
developing in the upper level flow. A band of low to mid level 
moisture will advect through the region, bringing scattered low 
level clouds overnight and resulting in warmer low temperatures. 
Lows are expected to range from the low 60s to the low 70s. 

Zwink

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Sat May 7 2022

A mid-Spring heat dome will build over the southern plains into the 
middle of next week. The strong upper high will result in a quasi-
omega block pattern across eastern TX into southern IL. This will 
allow moderately strong southwesterly upper flow to the west of 
OKlahoma. With substantial mixing and downslope, this will allow mid-
summer-like temperatures at least through the middle of next week. 
The main impact will be fire weather conditions over western OK and 
part of northern TX when critical conditions are expected on Sunday 
and Monday. Minimum RH values around 10 or less and moderate 
southwesterly winds are expected. The arrival of an upper trough to 
the west coast and the resulting backing of mid-level winds will 
connect the southern plains with subtropical moisture by Tuesday. 
With the large upper ridge still over eastern OK, precipitation 
chances will be higher in the western part of the state Tuesday 
night and early Wednesday. Rain chances may increase again by Friday 
with the approach of a short-wave trough to the plains. The next 
front is expected beyond next Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sat May 7 2022

Surface winds will become established out of the southeast and 
become gusty through Saturday afternoon. VFR conditions are
expected to continue through Saturday. Low to mid level moisture 
will move through the region resulting in possible drops to MVFR 
ceiling levels, however coverage may result in continuous VFR
conditions through Saturday and into Sunday morning. Overnight, a
low level jet positioned over the region will result in low level
wind shear at most sites.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  82  71  94  72 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobart OK         90  65 100  68 /   0   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  94  72 103  73 /   0   0  10  10 
Gage OK           87  62  98  66 /   0   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     79  66  93  73 /   0   0   0   0 
Durant OK         85  70  93  71 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night 
     for OKZ004-009-010-014>016-021-022-033>037.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night 
     for TXZ083>085-087-088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...50