574 
FXUS64 KMEG 071130
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
630 AM CDT Sat May 7 2022

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 239 AM CDT Sat May 7 2022/ 

DISCUSSION...

Currently...A cloud deck is pushing into the MO Bootheel and West
TN this morning as another piece of upper level energy rotates 
around the upper low over the upper OH Valley. Elsewhere skies 
are clear. Temps are generally in the 50s with a light WNW wind. 

Today...Expect cloud deck to push across the Mid-South mainly east
of the MS River into this afternoon as upper level energy rotates
through and cyclonic surface flow remains over the area. By late
this afternoon high pressure at the surface and aloft build in and
sunshine will increase east of the MS River. This lingering cloud
cover combined with cool northerly winds will result in below 
normal temps today with highs from the upper 60s along the TN 
River to the mid 70s across the Delta SW of Memphis.

Tonight...Clearing and cool with temps in the upper 40s east to
lower 50s across the Delta. 

Sunday...Upper ridging begins to strengthen over the region and
surface winds become southeasterly. Expect a pleasant day with low
humidity and highs in the upper 70s to around 80. 

Next week...Upper ridging will dominate as an omega block forms
over the CONUS. Expect highs in the lower 90s by Tuesday and
Wednesday. Southerly winds will bring more humidity into the Mid-
South with dewpoints climbing into the 60s. Not summertime
oppressive but it will uncomfortable considering the lack of warm
weather so far this year. Toward the end of the week the upper 
low off the SE US Atlantic coast will begin to retrograde. As a 
result this may push a back door cold front into the area by 
Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will not be much cooler but 
easterly flow may advect in slightly lower dewpoints. A few 
showers cannot be ruled out with this back door front but 
confidence too low to mention in the forecast attm. 

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF cycle

Current low clouds over portions of west Tennessee and the
Missouri bootheel with remain for much of the day producing mainly
MVFR ceilings while VFR conditions will be found across the
remainder of the region. Winds will be mainly from the northwest
at 5 to 10 knots before shifting to the northeast this evening.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$