949 
FXUS63 KOAX 202017
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
317 PM CDT Wed Apr 20 2022

...Updated Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Apr 20 2022

Primary forecast concerns are the convective storm chances the 
next three days, including areal coverage and the strength of the 
storms. Secondary concerns will be very strong wings Friday into 
Saturday that should solidly meet wind advisory criteria, and some
concern if we would meet high wind warning conditions on Saturday.

In the short term, clouds have been slow to clear. We had
scattered showers and a couple of thunderstorms this morning, in
both southwest IA, and northeast NE. Lately, in the last few hours,
the precipitation has transitioned to drizzle pushing west to 
east, with some visibility restrictions down to 2 to 4 miles at 
times. Weill continue to sweep the clouds out through early 
evening. Where clouds have cleared and the front has pushed in 
with northwesterly downsloping winds in northeast NE, temperatures
have quickly bumped into the upper 60s, but will likely only 
reach the lower/mid 50s for western IA. And then lows drop into 
the mid 30s to lower 40s overnight with mostly clear skies. 

Thursday should be a very nice day with east southeast winds 10 to
15 mph, wind high temps reaching the lower to mid 70s. We well see
a small chance of thunderstorms developing near the NE/KS border
toward evening, north of a northward moving warm front. There
remains a chance of stronger storms near the NE/KS border through
the night, where SPC has outlined a slight risk of severe storms.
Of note amongst the CAMs, the HRRR would bring the chance of
storms in a little sooner than other models, so that's something
we'll be watching. 

Meanwhile, numerous showers/thunderstorms overspread the forecast
area Thursday night. Rainfall amounts could average one half inch
which would be especially welcome. And whatever showers develop 
would likely linger into Friday morning as the warm front lifts 
northward. This sets the stage for a warm and windy Friday. After 
the morning showers, high temps should climb into the mid 80s, and
could even make a run near 90 as you head west into the central 
part of the state. Winds increase to 20 to 30 mph with winds 30 to
40 mph. 

Convection still seems likely in central and northeast NE
toward evening as the dry line moves into the area. It's
interesting to note the EC has been consistent in developing storm
a little farther east and deeper into our forecast area, but the 
GFS/Canadian model developing storms farther west seems more 
reasonable. SPC has a slight risk in northeast NE, and while there
will be a chance of storms farther east Friday night, unsure if 
those storms would be severe. 

The stronger winds continue Friday night into Saturday, and it's 
during time we'll likely see stronger wind speed gusts 45 to 55 
mph possible. We edged the NBM winds closer to the 90th 
percentile during this time, but not as has as the NBM4.1 wind 
speeds which would be more supportive of high wind warning 
criteria over much of the region. But solid wind advisory criteria
seems plausible Friday night into Saturday. 

As the front/dryline pushes east on Saturday, we'll continue to
see a chance of scattered morning showers/storms, with another 
risk for severe weather along/ahead of the front Saturday 
afternoon and evening for southeast NE and southwest IA. This was 
in the early morning Day 4 SPC outlook where they indicated a 15% 
chance for severe storms. 

The remainder of the forecast should be mostly dry with a slow 
moderating trend for temperatures. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed Apr 20 2022

Scattered showers and areas of drizzle, along with IFR clouds,
will impact the TAF locations at product issuance, but that will
also be ending within the next 1-3 hours with clouds becoming MVFR
and eventually VFR from west to east. Southerly winds becoming
northwest through time, and then northerly less than 8 knots after
00z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeWald
AVIATION...DeWald