310 
FNUS73 KTOP 161728
FWSTOP

Spot Forecast for PT157...BIA
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1228 PM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 CDT on April 16. 
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (800) 432-3929, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

North to northeast winds veer slightly through this afternoon to 
more easterly generally generally remaining sustained around 10
mph with a few gusts this afternoon up to around 20 mph. Mixing 
depths will support good to excellent smoke dispersal. Minimum RH
should settle around 30 percent this afternoon. 

Rain chances return late tonight into Sunday afternoon though 
amounts look light for the most part.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). 
Chance of pcpn......0 percent. 
Max temperature.....Around 55. 
Min humidity........31 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 10 to 11 mph. 
Mixing height.......3400-3500 ft AGL. 
Smoke dispersal.....Good (42200 knot-ft). 
Haines Index........4 low potential for large plume dominated fire 
                    growth. 

TIME (CDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 
Sky (%).........25  35  39  52  66  
Weather cov.....                    
Weather type....                    
Tstm cov........                    
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   
Temp............48  50  51  52  53  
RH..............34  33  33  32  31  
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   NE  NE  
20 FT wind spd..11  11  11  10  11  
20 FT wind gust.16  14  14  14  13  
Mix hgt (kft)...3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   
SDspl kt-ft/100054  55  52  53  42  

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). 
Chance of pcpn......10 percent. 
Min temperature.....Around 39. 
Max humidity........59 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 11 mph. 
Mixing height.......2600-3200 ft AGL decreasing to 500-1300 ft AGL 
                    early in the evening. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (4000-38500 knot-ft). 
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR low potential for large plume 
                    dominated fire growth to moderate potential for 
                    large plume dominated fire growth. 

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM   
Sky (%).........61     66     92     90     93     88     
Weather cov.....                                          
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   
Tstm cov........                                          
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      10     10     
Temp............53     48     44     42     41     42     
RH..............31     39     47     50     55     53     
20 ft wind......NE 11  NE 6   NE 5   E 6    E 7    E 10   
20 ft wind gust.13     10     10     11     13     16     
Mix hgt (ft)....3200   900    500    500    700    1000   
Haines index....4      4      4      5      5      4      
SDspl kt-ft/100039     5      4      7      9      15     

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Slight chance of rain 
                    showers early in the morning. Chance of rain 
                    showers late in the morning, then slight chance 
                    of rain showers early in the afternoon. 
Chance of pcpn......50 percent. 
Max temperature.....Around 46. 
Min humidity........53 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 8 to 11 mph. 
Mixing height.......1300-2100 ft AGL. 
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (16300-30500 knot-ft). 
Haines Index........2 to 4 OR very low potential for large plume 
                    dominated fire growth to low potential for 
                    large plume dominated fire growth. 

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM      
Sky (%).........91        95        98        91        
Weather cov.....          S CHC     CHANCE    S CHC     
Weather type....NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    
Tstm cov........                                        
Chc of pcpn (%).10        20        50        20        
Temp............40        40        40        43        
RH..............57        59        70        67        
20 FT wind......E 10G16   E 11G16   E 9G16    E 9G14    
Mix hgt (ft)....1300      1600      1600      1900      
Haines index....4         3         2         2         
SDspl kt-ft/100023        28        16        25        

$$
Forecaster...Drake
Requested by...Rick Campbell
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2209326.0/TOP
.DELDT 04/16/22
.EMAIL adam.rogers@bia.gov