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923 FXUS62 KJAX 041913 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 313 PM EDT Mon Apr 4 2022 ...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... The influence of high pressure ridging will remain dominant through today with mostly clear skies and predominantly dry weather, with increased cloud cover building in tonight and into early Tuesday morning. High pressure will continue to move off to the east causing the prevailing flow to shift about to be more out of the southwest by early Tuesday morning bringing in moist air and rising humidity levels. Temperatures will peak in the lower to mid 80s for inland areas this afternoon and in the mid to upper 70s for areas along the coast. .SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]... A band of showers and storms is forecasted to move through the forecast area Tuesday afternoon/evening with a potential for strong to severe thunderstorms occurring with southeast Georgia being the most likely area for impacts, especially for areas to the north of Waycross. Storms will be supported by mid level troughing aloft with the most likely threats being locally strong wind gusts and a possibility of isolated tornadoes. Potentially severe weather may return on Wednesday as convection in conjunction with upper level troughing moves across the region ahead of an advancing cold front. Temperatures during this period will rise into the mid to upper 80s with temperatures peaking on Wednesday. Overnight low temperatures ahead of the front will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. .LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]... Lingering showers and thunderstorms passing through the region will move offshore on Thursday and into Friday as dry cool air settles in over the forecast area over the weekend bringing clearing skies, dry weather, and breezy westerly winds which will become more mild by Sunday. Temperatures after the frontal passage are expected to drop below the seasonal average on Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION... [Through 18Z Tuesday] VFR conditions will prevail through the evening hours. Southeast winds around 10 knots with higher gusts will diminish this evening. South to southeast winds will then increase to 10-15 knots with higher gusts on Tuesday. Stratocumulus clouds will increase from the south tonight, and MVFR cigs are expected late tonight at KGNV. A few showers/storms may develop near the end of the TAF period near the TAF sites, with the main activity coming well after the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... High pressure will continue to build northeast of the local waters today and to the east on Tuesday. Unsettled weather returns late Tuesday through Thursday night into early Friday as a couple of frontal systems impact the region bringing rounds of showers and thunderstorms with elevated winds and seas over the offshore waters starting late Tuesday. Rip Currents: Moderate Risk for all beaches, Today and Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 57 81 65 82 65 / 0 90 80 60 50 SSI 65 80 68 83 68 / 0 80 70 60 50 JAX 63 85 68 85 68 / 0 80 60 60 50 SGJ 65 83 68 84 68 / 0 70 40 60 40 GNV 61 85 67 84 67 / 0 60 60 70 50 OCF 63 87 68 85 68 / 0 50 50 60 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&