507 
FXUS64 KMOB 300016
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
716 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...VFR conditions were observed across the region at
the time of issuance and will continue through much of the period.
Upper level cloud cover will continue to increase from west to
east tonight as the next system approaches. Clouds will begin to 
lower especially during the day Wednesday. Storms over western 
portions of the area will also be possible ahead of the main line by
late Wednesday afternoon. Southerly winds around 10 knots tonight
will increase significantly to around 20-25 knots with frequent 
gusts around 45 knots. Low level wind shear of around 40 knots 
will also be possible at 2k ft over inland areas early Wednesday 
morning. Wind shear will increase again especially over southeast 
Mississippi and southwest Alabama by Wednesday afternoon. /14


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022/ 

..SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Wednesday Night/...A strong upper 
level trough and associated cold front will move eastward through
the day on Wednesday. The upper trough takes on a negative tilt 
Wednesday afternoon and evening as a powerful 130 knots jet streak
moves into the region. Strong upper level divergence in the 
favorable region of the upper jet structure along with with a 
strong low level jet of 50 to 70 knots will set the stage for an 
outbreak of severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon through 
Wednesday night. A line of severe thunderstorms (QLCS) will 
develop to our west and strengthen Wednesday afternoon as it moves
across the lower MS river valley. The line will likely move into 
our southeast Mississippi counties during the late afternoon and 
evening and across the remainder of the area through early 
Thursday morning.

Favorable shear and instability profiles will lead to the 
potential of all modes of severe weather. Numerous episodes of 
damaging winds with gusts up to 80 mph are expected due to the 
very strong low level jet in place. Any convection will easily 
bring down the strong winds from aloft and produce numerous swaths
of damaging wind gusts. A capping inversion will be in place 
ahead of the line and likely prevent isolated supercells from 
developing until the upper forcing with the line of storms gets 
closer. However, if any storms are able to break the cap, 
conditions will be favorable for strong tornadoes. In addition 
fast moving tornadoes will be possible with any broken line 
segments within the line of thunderstorms.

Well ahead of the front on Wednesday, strong southerly winds will
develop with sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph with frequent gusts 
of 50 to 55 mph. This could cause instances of non-thunderstorm 
wind damage and a Wind Advisory is in effect. Now is the time to 
prepare any loose items that could be damaged in strong wind 
gusts. The strong southerly flow will also bring a multitude of 
hazards to the coastal/marine areas with a High Risk of Rip 
Currents, a Coastal Flood Advisory for water levels of 2 to 3 feet
above normally dry ground around Mobile Bay and 1 to 2 feet above
across the remainder of the coast. In additions, a High Surf 
Warning is in effect for 9 to 12 foot breakers. 

Low temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid 60s. Highs on 
Wednesday will be in the low to mid 80s inland to mid and upper 
70s along the coast. /13

SHORT TERM /Thursday Through Friday Night/...Another upper level 
shortwave trough will move over the Mississippi and Tennessee 
Valleys during the day on Thursday and into the evening. The 
overall flow aloft over the northern Gulf coast will transition 
from being southwesterly to more zonal by Thursday night. This 
will then largely persist through Friday night. After surface cold
FROPA Thursday morning, high pressure will build in over the 
Southeast and continue through Friday. In terms of sensible 
weather, expect the line of showers and storms (discussed in the 
near term) to progress east of the area by mid-morning on 
Thursday. Little to no rain is then anticipated for the local area
through Friday evening. Although, rain chances will begin to 
increase once again late Friday night. 

High temperatures through the period will generally remain in the
70s, with lows in the 50s. The exception to this will be areas 
north of Highway 84, where lows could potentially dip into the 
upper 40s. Lastly, the rip current risk will remain HIGH through 
Friday, then decrease to a MODERATE risk Friday night. /26

EXTENDED TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...By Saturday afternoon, 
yet another upper level shortwave will move over the Southeast 
followed by zonal flow (and perhaps brief, weak ridging) into 
early next week. Surface features on Saturday consist of a 
potential lingering surface boundary over the northern Gulf 
progressing back north as a warm front through the day, along with
a low pressure system progressing through the Midwest. This low 
will eventually make its way east, with cold FROPA over the 
Southeast overnight Saturday. High pressure will then build into 
the region for Monday.

Global models have come into better agreement in regards to the 
weekend system. Sensible weather for the local area will start out
with scattered showers and possibly some storms closer to the 
coast. The bulk of the shower activity will likely be concentrated
over the Gulf waters, as model PWAT values are maximized (1.7-1.9
inches) over this region. More isolated activity is anticipated 
for areas north of Highway 84. Showers and any storms will then 
quickly push east through Saturday evening, with dry conditions 
building in by early Sunday morning. No rain is expected through 
Monday. High temperatures through the extended term are 
anticipated to be in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees (upper 70s
at the coast). Lows will likely be in the upper 40s to mid 50s 
over inland areas and in the upper 50s at the coast.

Model guidance continues to show the potential for another 
possibly strong storm system over the Southeast next Tuesday; 
however, there remains disagreement between model solutions. 
Because of this and since the event is far out in time, it's 
difficult to discuss any specifics at this point. We will continue
to monitor trends and how this system evolves in the coming days.
Please stay tuned and weather aware, as this time of year is 
prime time for severe weather in the South. /26

MARINE...A southerly to southeasterly flow tonight will become 
strong with frequent gusts to gale force Wednesday and Wednesday 
night ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas will increase 
substantially to 10 to 12 feet by Wednesday night. A light to 
moderate northwest flow follows in the wake of the front Thursday 
night into Friday. /13

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to midnight CDT Wednesday 
     night for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 7 AM CDT Thursday 
     for ALZ263>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for 
     ALZ265-266.

FL...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to midnight CDT Wednesday 
     night for FLZ201>206.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 7 AM CDT Thursday 
     for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for 
     FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to midnight CDT Wednesday 
     night for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Wednesday for 
     GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.

     Gale Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for 
     GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

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