267 
FXUS63 KBIS 261430
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
930 AM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 928 AM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022

Mid to upper level cloud cover continues to stream over the ridge
to the west through our area. For mid-morning update have
increased cloud cover accordingly to address this. Otherwise,
quiet weather continues.

UPDATE Issued at 634 AM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022

No major changes were needed for this update on a chilly Saturday
morning. Just blended in the latest observations to the going
forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022

Expect cool temperatures and dry weather through the short term.

Clouds will be on the increase from the west leading to a mostly
cloudy day across much of the west and central. Further east will
see a partly cloudy to mostly sunny sky for most of the day.

At the upper levels, a broad western CONUS ridge will slightly
amplify through the day, keeping us in northwest flow aloft. We
will also be under the influence of surface high pressure centered
over the central Canadian Prairie provinces through the day. 

Temperatures will be chilly this morning, with lows falling into
the upper single digits to the upper teens. Highs will also be
cooler than yesterday, ranging from the lower 20s northeast to 
the lower 40s southwest. Winds will be much lighter than in
previous days, given the relaxing pressure gradient.

Tonight will bring similar lows as this morning with decreasing
clouds.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022

Ridging starts to nudge in on Sunday as surface winds become
southeasterly and breezy. This will signal the start of a warmup
into the new work week. Highs may touch the lower 50s across the
southwest on Sunday with the warmest temperatures of the period
coming on Monday as the ridge axis moves overhead. Highs on Monday
will range from the upper 30s northeast to the lower 60s
southwest. Monday will also be breezy given a tightening pressure
gradient as the next trough starts to approach.

Attention then turns to this next weather maker which will bring 
rain/snow chances back to the west and central as early as Monday 
night.

Still no major changes in our thinking for this system as 
substantial uncertainty remains regarding details. Ensembles
continue to advertise two distinct waves in split flow, a northern
stream wave (and associated Clipper) and a southern stream wave 
(and associated Colorado Low) as the mean trough approaches. 
There have been some hints that the two waves may eventually 
phase, but not until they move well out of our area and into the 
Great Lakes region. However this solution is far from certain when
looking at the 00z GEFS QPF plumes at KBIS and KJMS. We are still
not seeing any clustering at either site with possible QPF 
amounts ranging from zero to over an inch.

Given the latest information, the best guess will be a messy
frontal passage sometime Tuesday/Tuesday night into Wednesday 
with some rain transitioning to snow (and possibly some mixed 
precipitation). Ensemble trends would suggest the area with the 
best chance for some snow accumulation will be across the east in 
the Turtle Mountains down into the James River Valley. This area 
matches up well with where the latest NBM is suggesting likely 
PoPs Tuesday and Tuesday night. 

Precipitation chances will diminish Wednesday night and through 
the day on Thursday but temperatures are forecast to remain on the
cool side through the end of the week. However it is important to
note that the NBM continues to show considerable spread with 
regards to temperatures during this time frame which makes since 
given the highly unpredictable pattern behind the trough.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022

VFR conditions are expected through the period with generally
light and variable winds.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...ZH