696 
FXUS64 KMAF 232337
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
637 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022

Gusty NW wind should drop off this evening and remain W to NW
through tomorrow. Do have some virga showers currently moving 
down through SE NM and Nrn Permian Basin producing locally gusty 
and dusty conditions near them... these should continue next few 
hours. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 455 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022

Broad cyclonic flow persists over the central CONUS due to the 
presence of a large upper lvl trough. West TX and southeast NM 
remain under the influence of this large upper lvl system with NW 
flow aloft continuing. Temperatures have been much cooler than 
normal as a result over the past couple of days. This will be the 
third day in a row of well below normal temperatures across our 
region. However, a rapid warm up is expected tomorrow and into this 
weekend. We will continue to see quiet weather overnight as lows dip 
into the low to mid 30s in most locations. Any lingering cloud cover 
should clear to the east by early Thursday morning. After a chilly 
start to the day, downsloping west winds and increasing hghts aloft 
behind the departing upper lvl trough will allow highs to climb into 
the mid to upper 70s Thursday afternoon. Very dry air in place 
coupled with breezy conditions will lead to another afternoon of 
very high to extreme fire danger (see fire wx discussion for 
additional details). Winds will subside Thursday night with plenty 
of radiational cooling expected under clear skies allowing lows to 
bottom out in the upper 30s to low 40s.

-Salerno 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 455 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022

Longwave pattern will undergo a shift from broad eastern troughing 
extending back to TX to a more pronounced mid-level ridge pattern 
beginning Fri thru the weekend. Temps will rise steadily into the 
80s and even some L90s showing up by Sunday as height rises under 
the ridge will promote a decent period of above-normal temps across 
the region. Out west, a strong upper level disturbance will make 
headway into the PAC coast, pushing eastward through the SW before 
making its appearance by Tuesday. The lead side of the trough will 
be accompanied by a pretty potent jet max which should degrade 
conditions over SE NM and W TX for Tue/Wed in the form of wind and 
and increased fire weather potential. Precip chances are mundane at 
best with best forcing to the NE, leading to a prolonged drought 
outlook for the next 7+ days. Temps will cool slightly after Monday, 
but not before a possibility of widespread 90s that afternoon given 
the downsloping SW flow and sufficient mixing along the thermal 
ridge overhead. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               33  76  39  83 /   0   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                 33  77  39  81 /   0   0   0   0 
Dryden                   40  80  43  85 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Stockton            37  77  45  83 /   0   0   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass           36  67  47  74 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobbs                    32  72  38  80 /   0   0   0   0 
Marfa                    28  69  31  78 /   0   0   0   0 
Midland Intl Airport     34  75  40  82 /   0   0   0   0 
Odessa                   35  75  42  82 /   0   0   0   0 
Wink                     33  79  36  82 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday 
     evening for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster County-Chinati 
     Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis 
     Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-
     Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-
     Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday 
     evening for Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...72