625 
FXUS62 KMLB 190732
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
332 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

.DISCUSSION...

...Near Record High Temperatures at Some Locations Again Today...

...Strong Early Evening Storms Also Expected ...

Regeneration of spotty, small nuisance showers along the large 
southward moving outflow boundary in northern Brevard/Osceola
Cos. finally appears to be waning.

SW flow aloft continues today ahead of mid level trough, which 
will reach the longitude of FL as its base crosses NOFL around 12Z
Sun. As a surface cool front pushes across the FL panhandle 
during the day, low level southerly flow over the peninsula will 
veer to SW. All model guidance indicates the Atlantic sea breeze 
will develop in the mid-late afternoon, but will likely remain 
over the coastal counties, especially Volusia, where its likely to
be pinned at or near the immediate coast. Since the flow regime 
will be WCSB dominant, the bulk of diurnal convection is once 
again very likely to wait until collision occurs on the eastern 
side of the peninsula toward sunset. Highest POPs (30-50) are 
indicated after 00Z, with the highest afternoon chances (30-40) 
over the interior south. 

Slightly faster mean H85-H50 steering flow (SW@15-25kt) coupled 
with a late day increase in H25 divergence across north-central FL
will support some strong storms with gusty winds, frequent 
lightning and torrential downpours.

Hot once again with temps reaching 90F or so over the interior,
and a few degrees higher (U80s) near the coast. Mins ranging from
around 60F north to the M-U60s south.

Sun-Sun Night...Upper troughing along the eastern CONUS to include 
north FL will lift northeast and out into the western Atlc leaving 
zonal flow aloft across the peninsula. At the surface, a weak cool 
front over the south-central peninsula early in the period will 
continue southward where it will become quasi-stationary over the FL 
Straits. High pressure will build in from the northwest and move to 
across the southeast U.S. Initial NW/N surface winds will quickly 
transition to NNE/NE by the end of the day and NE/ENE by sunrise Mon 
morning. A small threat for showers will exist early in the period, 
perhaps an isolated lightning storm (Treasure Coast) with PoPs 
tapering down from north to south, post-frontal. Sun night will 
remain dry. 

Max temps U70s to L80s (south), except L-M70s for coastal Volusia/N. 
Brevard. Mins 50s most everywhere Sun night but the Treasure Coast 
and the barrier islands of the Space Coast (L-M60s).

Mon-Sat...Weak ridging develops across the area on Mon-Tue, then 
some flattening of the ridge as it is suppressed southward and 
gradually trends toward the southern Bahamas through late week as 
some energy aloft to the N/W traverses the Deep South backing the 
flow from out of the southwest. Some stronger energy/upper troughing 
pushes into the area/region Fri night into Sat. Surface ridging 
across the southeast U.S. gets nudged into the western Atlc Mon 
night into Tue as the next weak front edges closer pushing into at 
least the FL Panhandle by sunrise Thu morning, though there will be 
a band of showers/storms out ahead of it. While the boundary 
initially makes it into north or even north-central FL, it will get 
a stronger nudge late Fri/Sat by the aforementioned upper energy, 
finally forcing it into/through ECFL. 

Conditions remain mainly dry into Tue, though we finally introduce a 
20pct chance of convection late Tue aftn/evening for an increase in 
moisture, then 30-50pct late Wed due to a continued surge in 
moisture and late day sea breeze collisions across the interior. 
PoPs continue 30-40pct Wed night, and 50-60pct on Thu/Thu evening 
due to proximity of previous mentioned front. Lower confidence into 
Fri-Sat with medium range models at odds with placement of 
features/timing, so have gone 30-40pct for now on Fri. The GFS is 
the slower solution (keeping higher PoPs in for Sat), while the 
ECMWF has the front exiting Fri night and drying things out.

Mon's temps similar to Sun, then a warming trend for both highs/lows 
thru mid-week, then a lowering of temps slightly Thu-Sat surrounding 
the next system and increase in both clouds/precip, then potential 
drier/cooler air, post-frontal.


&&

.AVIATION...Southward moving outflow boundary and attendant 
mesohigh keeping the boundary layer more mixed across the north
than it would otherwise be this time of the morning. METARs are
showing some shallow mist beginning to develop to the south (VRB-
FPR), so the VRB-SUA corridor looks to be more likely for IMC in 
CIGs/VSBYs through 13Z, Still could see some fog and stratus 
settle in ISM-MCO-MLB north after 09Z, but have played it more 
conservative for now. 

Otherwise, prevailing VFR 14Z-22Z with isolated-scattered SHRA/TS
developing along sea-breeze collision (likely east of SFB-MCO)
22Z-00Z and moving across the east coast terminals through 03Z or
04Z. IMC in precip with G30KT+ in any stronger cells/bands which 
form.

&&

.MARINE...Today-tonight...S-SSW 10-15kt veer SW and increase to
12-17kt. Offshore component keeps seas 2-3ft along the coast,
otherwise 3-4ft. Higher likelihood for strong storms moving
offshore toward sunset in Volusia County, after sunset for areas 
farther south, with a higher chance for the Space/Treasure Coasts
compared to Fri.

NW/N winds 15-20 kts early Sun morning with weak "cool" frontal 
passage continue to veer N/NNE, NE/ENE Sun night, then ERLY Mon into 
Mon night, and finally SE on Tue/Wed. Winds may be 10-15 kts very 
near shore, but will (still) average 15-20 kts over the open Atlc 
for much of the period as the pgrad remains rather tight. Seas will 
build to 3-5 ft with up to 6 ft possible over the Gulf Stream Sun 
thru Mon night, then gradually subsiding to 3-5 ft areawide Tue-Wed. 

&&

.CLIMATE...Record high temperatures for Saturday, March 19th, along
with the years they were set:

DAB 88 (1977)
LEE 88 (2020)
SFB 92 (1984)
MCO 93 (1921)
MLB 91 (1963)
VRB 89 (2018)
FPR 90 (2003)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  62  73  54 /  10  50  20   0 
MCO  91  66  80  56 /  20  30  20   0 
MLB  86  65  76  59 /  30  40  20   0 
VRB  87  65  79  59 /  30  40  30   0 
LEE  88  63  78  53 /  10  40  20   0 
SFB  90  64  77  54 /  20  40  20   0 
ORL  91  66  80  57 /  20  30  20   0 
FPR  87  65  79  60 /  30  40  30   0 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cristaldi
LONG TERM....Sedlock
AVIATION...Cristaldi