115 
FXUS63 KOAX 100911
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
311 AM CST Thu Mar 10 2022

...Updated Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Mar 10 2022

At 300 AM, radar indicated widespread echos across eastern 
Nebraska and western Iowa. While reports of light snow have 
increased over the last couple hours, it still appeared as though
a substantial layer of dry air (per the 00Z OAX sounding) was 
leading to significant sublimation and reducing snowfall rates. 
Note the minimal visibility reduction with the snowfall at KOMA, 
KOFF and KLNK at 3 AM. Webcams showed snow covered roads along the
NE/KS border, with light accumulations starting to show up in 
Lincoln.

Rest of Today:

Light to moderate snow (snow rates of 0.5 inches per hour or less) 
should continue along and south of Interstate 80 this morning. The
highest snowfall rates should remain along or south of the NE/KS 
border, and mirror the eastward shift in a band of 850 mb 
frontogenesis this morning. Thus the heaviest accumulations for 
the remainder of this event should be limited to northern Kansas 
and Nebraska counties directly along the NE/KS border. There isn't
much to indicate any enhanced snowfall rates in the Lincoln or 
Omaha Metros this morning, so any additional snow accumulations 
should be limited to an inch or less. As it is still snowing, the
Advisory and Warning products were left in place despited the
lower snowfall forecast. Snowfall should end for the entire 
region by late afternoon.

Breezy and Cold Friday:

A trough moving across the northern tier of the U.S. will push a 
another cold front through our region Friday morning. CAM soundings 
indicate a well mixed boundary layer behind the front Friday
afternoon. Toss in HREF mean 850 mb winds in the 25 to 35 knot 
range and most of us can expect northerly winds gusts of 25 to 35
mph Friday. Northeast Nebraska could see gusts closer to 45 mph 
Friday morning directly behind the front. With cold temperatures 
in place (afternoon highs only in the 20s and lower 30s) we can 
expect wind chills to hover in the single digits and teens 
throughout the day. 

Weekend Warmup:

A rapid warm up is expected over the weekend, with ridging aloft, 
southerly surface winds (WAA), and downsloping in the lee of the 
Rockies all playing their part. Prior concerns regarding the
potential for snowcover to limiting temperatures are less 
relevant due to snowfall under preforming today. Thus our 
temperatures forecast has trended warmer for the weekend. We now 
expect high temperatures in the 60s for most or all of the region 
by Sunday afternoon.

Remaining Warm Next Week:

Though a couple shortwaves may move through next week (Monday & 
Thursday/Friday), the various ensemble systems (EPS, GEFS & CMCE)
generally favor above average temperatures throughout the week. 
The EPS and GEFS means suggest daily highs that are 10 to 25 
degrees above seasonal norms Monday through next weekend. Our 
forecast has 50s on Monday followed by 60/70s the rest of the 
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Wed Mar 9 2022

Best chance for accumulating snow will be at KLNK where visibility
could get down to 2-4 miles 11-18z, along with MVFR ceilings.
Snow amount potential is 2-3" at KLNK. KOMA has a lower chance of
accumulating snow as visibilities only drop to 6 miles 13-16z, 
and snowfall amounts less than an inch. KOFK should remain VFR 
through the period with no snow expected. 


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for 
     NEZ050>053-065>068.

     Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for NEZ078-
     088>093.

IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for IAZ069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Albright
AVIATION...DeWald