231 
FXUS64 KAMA 052352
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
552 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours, with winds being the main concern. Clear skies will give
way to some scattered to broken high clouds. Mid to low clouds may
move in to the north and east overnight and early on Sunday, but
confidence is not high enough that they will impact any of the TAF
sites. 

Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 212 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022/ 

SHORT TERM...
Breezy and dry conditions behind a Pacific front continue this
afternoon especially across the TX Panhandle. Besides the ongoing
critical fire weather conditions post Pacific front, is Canadian
front coming in from the north. This front is already partially
into the Oklahoma Panhandle with some areas seeing northwesterly
not northerly winds, as well as slightly higher dewpoints. Short 
term models have this front stalling out in the Oklahoma Panhandle
through most of this afternoon into evening. This may mitigate 
some of the higher fire danger with light winds right along the 
stationary front. This front will continue pushing south across
the rest of the FA during the overnight hours.

The cold front is expected to be through the entire Texas 
Panhandle by sunrise tomorrow. During the early morning hours some
moisture in the lower to mid levels will come into the southeast 
creating a slight chance for some light rain in the southeast 
Texas Panhandle before noon. Better moisture will be south and
east of the FA. Winds will be relatively light behind the front 
especially by the morning hours. A leeside low is progged to 
develop jut to the southwest of the FA then move slightly into the
southwest TX Panhandle. This will bring in some breezy southwest 
winds and dewpoints in the upper single digits. This will likely 
introduce some elevated fire weather conditions to the far 
southwest TX Panhandle sunday afternoon. The position of these 
surface features will create a temperature gradient of 15 to 20 
degrees from the north to northeast FA down to the southwest TX 
Panhandle. 

Currently, the next mid to upper level shortwave trough to 
impact the area is over central to southern CA/NV. The trough is 
progged to be over the Four Corners Region by late morning/early 
afternoon tomorrow. Then it will open into an open wave and clip 
the northwest FA going into tomorrow evening. This will introduce 
some chance PoPs to the western Oklahoma Panhandle and far 
northwest TX Panhandle, and eventually the central OK Panhandle 
during the overnight hours. What may start out as rain will turn 
to snow with maybe upwards of half an inch expected for Kenton, 
OK. Elsewhere further south and east some surrounding areas may 
only get a light dusting. Sunday night temperatures are expected 
to drop back into the teens for the majority of the FA. Breezy 
nocturnal winds will be possible dropping wind chill values into 
the single digits for the northwest combined OK/TX Panhandles. 

Hoffeditz

Fire Weather...Sunday...
Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible in the far
southwest TX Panhandle Sunday afternoon. A surge of warm dry air
will push a cold front back to the northeast and bring breezy
westerly winds into the southwest TX Panhandle, mainly Deaf Smith
County. Also some lower dewpoints will move in dropping the min RH
values into down into the teens. Max RFTI's will be topping out
around 4 in southwest Deaf Smith County. 

Hoffeditz

LONG TERM...Monday through Friday

Positively-tilted shortwave trough over the central Rockies and
Great Basin region into southern California will track south and
east to the Four Corners region Monday night and then into the
southern Rockies Tuesday. The upper trough should move across the
Panhandles Tuesday night and could bring some light precip late
Monday night into Tuesday as the GFS and ECMWF are forecasting,
however confidence too low to mention at this time. 

Will stay with the NBM POPs next week with this extended forecast
package. The shortwave trough will quickly exit the Panhandles 
Tuesday night and then a northern stream upper trough approaches 
the Panhandles from the northwest late next week around Wednesday 
night into Friday time frame. Wintry precip will be possible 
across mainly the northern half or so of the forecast area 
Thursday into Thursday night or Friday.

Surface ridge builds down into the Panhandles Monday which then
shifts east by Tuesday night and Wednesday. Lee surface low over
the central U.S. Rockies develops Tuesday night and allows for
downsloping southwesterly winds Wednesday. As the surface low
deepens Wednesday and tracks south and east to the Oklahoma
Panhandle by late Wednesday. Surface pressure gradient tights up a
bit on Wednesday and allows for some increase in the winds by
Wednesday afternoon. 

As the surface low moves into the Oklahoma Panhandle late 
Wednesday, it will usher in a cold front Wednesday night which 
should exit the forecast area by 12Z Thursday. Surface ridge will 
build down into the Panhandles Thursday from the northwest and 
north. This will allow for a more moist upslope northeast to 
easterly surface flow Thursday into Friday as the surface high 
builds down across the central Plains states into southwest 
Kansas and southeastern Colorado. Low level Gulf moisture should 
advect north and west into the Panhandles during the latter half 
of next week.

Schneider

FIRE WEATHER...

Wednesday...

Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible on Wednesday
ahead of a cold front. The cold front is forecast to move into the
Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandles around Midnight Wednesday
night and then through the remainder of the Panhandles by 3 AM to 6
AM Thursday morning. Max RFTIs are forecast to be around 1 to 2 on
Wednesday with minimum relative humidity values as low as 11 to 13
percent Wednesday afternoon. The RFTIs are expected to be mainly
RH-driven on Wednesday as 20 foot winds are forecast to be out of
the southwest at 15 to 20 mph with possible gusts to 25 mph. ERC
values forecast to be in the 90th to 96th percentile in the
northern and eastern Panhandle with 70th to 89th percentile across
the remainder of the area.

Schneider

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                29  58  21  47  22 /   0  10   5   0   0 
Beaver OK                  24  47  17  46  17 /   0  20  20   0   0 
Boise City OK              19  45  14  40  17 /   0  10  30   0  10 
Borger TX                  30  55  22  49  23 /   0  10  10   0   0 
Boys Ranch TX              27  57  20  47  20 /   0   5   5   0   5 
Canyon TX                  30  60  20  48  21 /   5  10   0   0   0 
Clarendon TX               33  56  25  48  25 /   0  30   0   0   0 
Dalhart TX                 21  52  14  43  16 /   0  10  10   0   5 
Guymon OK                  24  49  18  46  20 /   0   5  20   0   5 
Hereford TX                30  65  19  48  20 /   0  10   0   0   0 
Lipscomb TX                27  49  19  47  19 /   0  30  10   0   0 
Pampa TX                   29  52  21  47  22 /   0  30   5   0   0 
Shamrock TX                32  49  23  49  23 /   0  50   5   0   0 
Wellington TX              34  53  26  51  24 /   0  50   5   0   0 

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for the following 
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Dallam...Deaf 
     Smith...Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hartley...Hemphill...
     Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...Palo 
     Duro Canyon...Potter...Randall...Roberts...Sherman...
     Wheeler.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for the following 
     zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.


&&

$$

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