729 
FXUS63 KFGF 052008
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
208 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 208 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

A system will begin to impact us starting this afternoon, bringing 
the chance for a dusting of snow to half an inch across the area. 
There have been some concerns about patchy blowing snow, especially 
where the snow falls, but as guidance comes in, it appears the 
highest gusts are displaced from falling snow. There still is that 
chance heading into later this afternoon though. The SE portions of 
our area such as Wadena, Otter Tail, Hubbard, and Grant counties 
have the potential to see some mixed precipitation. This could mean 
light accumulation up to two hundredths of an inch, (Confidence of 
this occurring around 30%) which could make travel slippery, even 
though it will be brief. Use caution this evening if you need to go 
anywhere. Greatest chances for snow accumulation will actually be 
along the international border with an area of convergence that 
could produce some snow showers around midnight tonight as it treks 
eastward. Expect lows tonight to get down into the teens. 

Tomorrow, lingering snow showers are possible as the system exits 
our area. Outside of this, it will be quiet and breezy thanks to dry 
NW flow. Temperatures are just below average, with highs in the 
upper teens and mid 20s. Gusts could reach 20 - 25 MPH, which could 
cause more patchy blowing snow, but more in areas of open country 
with fresher snow. Once we get through Sunday, We will have a quiet 
period before we receive more precipitation chances from a
clipper.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 208 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

Impacts...

* Gusty winds thanks to multiple clipper systems are likely next
  week (>60% chance of occurrence).

* Snowpack is unlikely to be able to blow in its current state, so 
  if we do see BLSN impacts, it would likely be from new snow.

* Moisture content is lacking with these clippers, and NBM 
  probabilities for greater than 1 inch of snow for each system does 
  not exceed 20%, so heavy snow problems are not anticipated for the 
  long term period at this time.

* A reinforcing shot of cold air from these clippers will bring 
  temperatures back to single digits and below zero. Wind chills may 
  also get as low as -35 by Thursday.

Synoptic Analysis...

Northwesterly flow will once again return after this Colorado Low 
exits the northern plains. This means that the clipper train will 
get started once again. Ensemble guidance shows a rather potent 
clipper/arctic front sweeping through the area on Tuesday. Locations 
and intensity of the trough are difficult to determine. Looking at 
EOF cluster analysis, the variance between the depth of the trough 
and the location place the center somewhere as far south as 
northeast North Dakota, and as far north as central Manitoba. 
Placement in this system will have impacts on wind direction and 
amount of snow that is able to fall. A further south track would 
allow for winds to have more of a northerly component, leaving us 
susceptible to blowing snow advection from Canada and have more of a 
valley enhancement. Given the depth of each trough, expect 
temperatures to fall back down to the single digits and for wind 
chills to once again approach advisory criteria.

Wind/Blowing Snow Potential...

With the multiple clippers, the ever persistent winds will return to 
the northern plains once again. Expect multiple breezy days as 
multiple clippers cross through the area, especially on Tuesday 
afternoon. Blowing snow potential is very low due to lack of 
blowable snow and limited falling snow.

For Tuesday: There is a strong signal for gusty winds on Tuesday as 
a clipper and arctic front dive through the area. Deep vertical 
mixing on top of strong cold air advection should allow some of the 
35-40 knot jet to mix down to the surface. The ceiling isn't too 
terribly high, as the max winds within the 1000-500mb layer is about 
45 knots at best, so not too terribly concerned about high wind 
potential. Blowing/drifting snow may become an issue, although the 
general consensus is that the current snowpack across the CWA isn't 
able to blow. On top of that, higher probabilities for the placement 
of the clipper further north would allow for more of a westerly 
component to the wind as opposed to the more concerning northerly 
component. The biggest concern for significant blowing snow impacts 
would arise from a more southerly track of the clipper, as this 
would create more of a northerly wind component and increase the 
proximity of falling snow, thus creating potential blowing snow 
advection into the Red River Valley. This doesn't appear to be a 
likely solution (<20% chance of occurrence), but it is nonetheless a 
potential solution.

Temperature/Wind Chills...

With the reinforcing shot of cold air, once again the subzero 
temperatures may return for overnight lows by Thursday morning. NBM 
probabilities for minimum temperatures falling below 0 are close to 
100% for all of northeast North Dakota and above 70% for the rest of 
the CWA by Thursday morning. Coupled with the winds stated above, 
wind chills will likely fall back to advisory criteria for Thursday 
morning (>70% probability of occurrence).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

Area between two systems with cloud cover and light snow chances
with either system impacting terminal locations. Light snow
expected to spread into DVL later today/tonight, and potentially
into GFK and FAR overnight from the northern system. Winds taking
longer to increase, thus have trended timing slower with NW gusty
winds picking up mainly by late afternoon into the overnight
hours. Tried to time the best chances for light snow, with
expected vsby reductions mainly at DVL. Southern system may bring
some light snow to BJI late tonight into early Sunday, however
uncertainty is high. 


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$

SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...Perroux
AVIATION...MJB