327 
FXUS64 KBRO 271102 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
502 AM CST Sun Feb 27 2022

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR ceilings at the TAF sites this morning. Impaired 
aviation conditions will continue early this morning. However, 
light coastal rain showers will shift offshore today and drier air
upstream will move into the western sections of the CWA. Ceilings
will improve to MVFR this afternoon and to VFR late tonight to 
early Monday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 238 AM CST Sun Feb 27 2022/ 

SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): Cloudy skies and light drizzle or 
rain will continue through early Sunday morning. However, by Sunday 
afternoon precipitation chances will end and there may be some 
clearing across the far west. High temperatures will reach around 50 
degrees for most areas. For Sunday night and Monday broad high 
pressure will spread over the area and the mid level pattern will 
give may to modest ridging building in from the west. Much drier air 
will work south over the area Sunday night into Monday, resulting in 
significant clearing. Light winds, drier air (and hence clearing 
skies) will support another cool to cold Sunday night with low temps 
in the 30s and 40s. However, subsequent Sunshine on Monday will help 
daytime high temps rebound into the 60s. The inherited forecast was 
on track and not significantly altered.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday): A 500mb ridge over 
Central Mexico will extend northward into deep south Texas 
through much of the period. The nearly zonal flow aloft will 
allow for rain0-free conditions and warmer temperatures through 
the upcoming work week. Steady onshore flow at the surface will 
continue through the period as surface high pressure moves 
farther to the east. Below normal temperatures Monday night and 
Tuesday will gradually warm to above normal by late week. The 
pressure gradient will strengthen Friday into Saturday as surface
low pressure develops across the Plains. This will lead to breezy
conditions across the CWA, especially near the coast, Friday and 
Saturday. Isolated showers are possible near the coast on Saturday
as moisture increases. 

MARINE (Now through Monday): High pressure will spread over the 
northwest Gulf today with a slightly tighter pressure gradient. As
a result, slightly stronger north winds will prevail along with 
higher seas. A small craft advisory in place on the Gulf waters. 
Conditions will improve slightly tonight and Monday as high 
pressure shifts east and the pressure gradient slackens.

Monday Night through Thursday Night: Favorable marine conditions 
will prevail through much of the period as high pressure settles 
across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Light to moderate winds and
generally low seas are expected through Thursday night. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  50  50  62  49 /  20   0   0   0 
BROWNSVILLE          50  49  65  48 /  20   0   0   0 
HARLINGEN            49  48  66  45 /  20   0   0   0 
MCALLEN              50  45  67  44 /  20   0   0   0 
RIO GRANDE CITY      51  39  68  41 /  10   0   0   0 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   54  53  61  54 /  30   0   0   0 

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for TXZ256-257-351.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
https://weather.gov/rgv

54-BHM/63-KC