National Weather Service Raw Text Product

935 
FXUS63 KBIS 211813
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1213 PM CST Mon Feb 21 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1210 PM CST Mon Feb 21 2022

The forecast continues to trend well. Surface observations across
the James River Valley have been consistently reporting 
visibility around one quarter mile, but most webcams across that
area do not suggest prevailing blizzard conditions at this time. 
Will continue to monitor the situation closely. Elsewhere, light
snow is forecast to slowly diminish from west to east across
southern North Dakota this afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 843 AM CST Mon Feb 21 2022

Overall, the forecast continues to trend as expected. Regional
radar mosaic shows another band of heavier snow from Sioux County
to the southern James River Valley. The strongest frontogenetical
forcing and isentropic ascent should wane this afternoon, but
light snow may continue to fall across southeast parts of our
forecast area all the way through tomorrow afternoon.

The main consideration moving forward will be headline decisions.
We continue to expect a close call for blizzard conditions in our
southeast, especially along the Highway 13 corridor and points 
south where the heaviest snow has fallen thus far. Also, whatever 
type of warning is in effect for that area may need to be extended
in time. Elsewhere, the plan remains to convert to wind chill 
headlines once snow and blowing snow impacts end. Current wind
chills across all of western and central North Dakota range from
25 to 45 below zero.

UPDATE Issued at 609 AM CST Mon Feb 21 2022

The forecast continues to unfold as expected. The initial intense
band of snow along the South Dakota border has washed out a bit,
but more banding was occurring to the west. Widespread light to
moderate snow will continue across the southern third of western
and central North Dakota through the day. No major changes were
needed for this update. Just blended in the latest observations to
the forecast. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 455 AM CST Mon Feb 21 2022

The ongoing winter storm across the southern third of the state 
highlights the short term forecast period. 

Widespread synoptic lift continues across much of the northern
Plains. Near the South Dakota border, a narrow band of enhanced
mid level frontogenesis has led to intense snowfall rates of 1 to
2 inches per hour. Adding in the wind, visibilities here have fallen
to a half mile or less at times. Thus, we will continue to 
mention near blizzard conditions in the Winter Storm Warning for 
points south of Interstate 94 and east of the Missouri River. An
eventual upgrade when winds pick up later is also still on the
table.

While the heaviest snowfall is occurring now, light to moderate
snow is expected to stick around the far south through much of 
the day and into tonight for some. Areas south of Interstate 94
and east of the Missouri River should expect 3 to 5 more inches 
of snow with locally higher amounts. In the other warning and 
advisory counties, a trace to 3 more inches can be expected. Winds
will be quite strong out of the northeast through the day,
especially over the James River Valley and vicinity where gusts to
45 mph will be possible. With fresh snow on the ground and light
snow still falling in some areas, near blizzard conditions are
likely to continue over the southeast part of the forecast area 
until tonight.

The other story continues to be dangerous to life threatening wind
chills. As winter headlines expire across the west this evening, 
wind chill headlines will be needed to replace them (the same for 
points east by later tonight).

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 455 AM CST Mon Feb 21 2022

Tuesday kicks off the long term with frigid actual morning lows 
ranging from near 25 below zero north central to around 10 below
over the James River Valley. Lingering frontogensis and the
glancing influence of another shortwave will keep some light snow
ongoing across the southeast through Tuesday afternoon.
Additional accumulations should be light. 

Wednesday morning will likely be the coldest morning of the long 
term as a 1049 mb surface high slides down directly overhead from
Canada. Most will see actual lows ranging from 30 to 20 below 
zero. Thursday morning will be very similar but maybe just a tad 
warmer west. Very few east of the Missouri River will see 
temperatures above zero again until Friday afternoon. Needless to 
say, more wind chill headlines will be needed through Friday 
morning.

A very slow warmup could commence Friday afternoon and into the
weekend, but ensemble spread greatly increases over this time 
period, and below normal temperatures remain favored. Beyond the 
current storm system, there is little to no chance of additional 
snow the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CST Mon Feb 21 2022

Snow will continue falling across southern North Dakota through 
the afternoon, and at KJMS possibly through the entire forecast 
period. VLIFR visibility will likely prevail at KJMS through the 
afternoon, with improvements to IFR or MVFR possible this evening 
into tonight. At KBIS and KDIK, IFR visibility should slowly 
improve through the afternoon. Prevailing MVFR ceilings are 
expected at these two terminals, but some VFR breaks are possible.
Another period of MVFR to IFR visibility with falling snow is 
possible later tonight through Tuesday morning. VFR conditions are
likely to prevail at KXWA and KMOT. North to northeast winds will
remain sustained around 10-20 kts through the forecast period, 
strongest at KJMS where gusts will approach 35 kts this afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening 
for NDZ018>023-025-031>033.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for 
NDZ034-040>045.

Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Wednesday for 
NDZ017.

Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Wednesday for NDZ001>005-
009>013.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Tuesday for NDZ035>037-
046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...Hollan