961 
FXUS65 KSLC 112230
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
330 PM MST Fri Feb 11 2022

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will remain in place off the Pacific
Coast through early next week, maintaining a dry northwesterly
flow across the area. A splitting trough will bring a chance for 
precipitation during the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Sunday)...Another quiet day in the short
term forecast period as broad upper level ridging across the far
eastern Pacific keeps the storm track east of the CWA.

MDCRS soundings show a well mixed layer below a subtle ~700mb
inversion. This correlates will with web cam and visual
observations of a reduction in obscuration from haze for most
locations...outside of the Cache Valley. With snow cover remaining
from December still, valley inversions are more persistent and
haze has continued through the day for the Cache and potentially
Sanpete Valleys. 

A shortwave digging southeastward around the periphery of the 
ridge has helped to increase northwesterly flow across the western
Uinta Basin and Castle County. Winds are gusting to around 35 to 
occasionally 40 mph and should decrease this evening. 

Aside from gusty winds...mid-level cold air advection with this
shortwave will drop temperatures a few degrees from today's
spring-like 50s along the Wasatch Front Saturday. Patchy dense fog
may redevelop in the Cache Valley tonight into Saturday morning. 

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Sunday)...Dry conditions will persist 
through Monday. A splitting trough will bring a chance of 
precipitation to the region Tuesday through Thursday before 
ridging takes over once again late next week.

A weak shortwave will pass through Utah Sunday night into Monday.
While no precipitation is expected, increased mixing will likely 
be enough to clear out Cache Valley haze and warm high 
temperatures into the mid-50s along the Wasatch Front and upper 
60s in lower Washington county. 

A Pacific Northwest trough will bring southwest flow into Utah 
Monday night into Tuesday. Ensembles are in good agreement that 
the trough will cut-off from the upper-level jet as it dives into 
the desert Southwest. While the brunt of the forcing associated 
with the low will remain south of us, the best chance for 
accumulating mountain snow and valley rain will be in central and 
southern Utah. However, the CMCE and some members of the EPS and 
GEFS are showing a weaker trough that moves further south and 
brings no precipitation to the region. At the very least, we can 
expect a dry cold front to cross the state and temperatures to 
cool back down to around seasonal averages.

Behind the closed low, deterministic runs of the GFS and ECMWF 
are indicating the potential for a shortwave to dip down into Utah
from the Canadian Rockies. Moist northerly flow would favor the 
Uintas and other northern Utah mountains. We have bumped up PoPs a
bit for these regions on Thursday, but ensembles are still 
struggling to pick up on this feature so confidence in much 
precipitation remains low. In the wake of this wave, the ridge 
over the Eastern Pacific will once again shift to the east over 
The Great Basin, likely bringing the return of valley inversions 
and dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will prevail throughout the 
forecast period. There is currently about a 10% chance for MVFR 
skies from midnight tonight to 6 am according to the NBM forecast.
Winds will shift out of the southeast around 04Z at 5 knots then 
shift back from the northwest late tomorrow morning. 

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected 
across much of the Utah and southwest Wyoming. Freezing fog is 
expected to develop once again at KLGU overnight; creating 
IFR/LIFR CIG and VIS through Saturday morning. Breezy winds this 
afternoon are forecast in southern Utah locations which will 
improve this evening/overnight. 

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Kruse/DeMaria/Webber/NDeSmet

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