439 
FXUS64 KMOB 081140
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
540 AM CST Tue Feb 8 2022

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...VFR is expected through the TAF period. Northerly
winds 5-10 knots today will become calm or light/variable by 
early this evening. /21 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 AM CST Tue Feb 8 2022/ 

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Wednesday/...A shortwave trough 
extending from central TN to southwest LA/southeast TX early this 
morning will progress southeastward across the region through this 
afternoon. A plume of thick mid to upper level cloud cover streaming 
within the southwest flow aloft ahead of this feature will shift to 
our east through the day. A more zonal mid to upper flow pattern 
will generally return across the region later tonight into Wednesday 
along the base of a larger trough encompassing much of the eastern 
CONUS. A deeply dry airmass will remain in place over the area 
tonight into Wednesday with clear skies and dry conditions expected. 
A surface ridge of high pressure will otherwise build eastward 
across the north central Gulf Coast region through Wednesday 
afternoon. Light northerly surface winds generally prevail today, 
becoming more westerly to southwesterly in direction by Wednesday 
afternoon. High temperatures today are forecast to reach into the 
upper 50s to lower 60s. Lows tonight mostly range between 30-35 
degrees over the area except upper 30s to lower 40s along the 
beaches. Highs Wednesday should warm into the lower to mid 60s 
inland and around 60 degrees near the immediate coast and beaches. 
/21  

SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Thursday night/...Dry forecast 
is maintained through the remainder of the work week.

Zonal flow continues through Wednesday night as the area remains at 
the base of a trough aloft. Flow aloft gradually transitions to 
southwesterly through the day on Thursday ahead of a shortwave 
pivoting across the Southern Plains. Meanwhile, a surface high 
meanders east along the northern Gulf Coast Wednesday night into 
Thursday before sliding further east toward the western Atlantic. 
Very dry air remains locked in place with PWATs in the 0.2-0.4 inch 
range, so the forecast continues to feature no rain and clear skies. 
Temperatures drop into the mid to upper 30s inland with 40s at the 
beaches by Thursday morning. Highs on Thursday rebound into the mid 
to upper 60s area-wide. Another round of cold temperatures
expected Thursday night with lows falling into the 30s and 40s. 
For those brave enough to take a dip in the Gulf waters, the rip 
current remains LOW. 07/mb

EXTENDED TERM /Friday Through Monday/...A massive and broad upper 
trough over the central and eastern CONUS on Friday steadily 
amplifies over the weekend and progresses into the eastern states.
An associated surface low pressure area passes from the western 
Great Lakes into southeast Canada through the end of the week, and 
brings a trailing cold front through the forecast area Saturday 
afternoon and evening. A surface ridge will then build into the 
region in the wake of the front through Monday. Despite the frontal 
passage, deep layer moisture continues to look too limited to 
support a mention of precipitation through the period. Highs on 
Friday and Saturday will be in the mid to upper 60s then in the wake 
of the front, highs on Sunday will be in the 50s before recovering 
to generally around 60 on Monday. Lows Friday night will be in the 
lower to middle 40s then trend cooler such that by Sunday night lows 
range from around 30 well inland to the mid to upper 30s at the 
coast. /22

MARINE...Small craft operators may need to exercise caution at 
times over the offshore Gulf waters through the early morning hours 
as moderate northerly flow continues. High pressure will build 
across the marine area through the latter part of the week, allowing 
for light onshore flow during the day and light offshore flow at 
night by Thursday and Friday. A moderate to strong northerly flow 
returns this weekend following the passage of the next cold front. 
Small Craft Advisories may become necessary Saturday night into 
Sunday or Sunday night. /21

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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