298 
FXUS65 KBOU 061023
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
323 AM MST Sun Feb 6 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 247 AM MST Sun Feb 6 2022

The weak upper level system will rapidly move south of our county
warning area this morning. Associated cold front is through all 
of northeast Colorado with northerly winds of 10-20kt. A stratus 
deck has developed over portions of the plains with ceilings in 
the 4000-6000ft agl range. Radar showing some increasing returns 
across southern Jefferson and Douglas counties so could be seeing 
some light to moderate snow in those locales and may see up to
around an inch through early morning. Light snow continues to 
fall in the mountains per webcams and snotel observations, but 
eyeball amounts looks to be only an inch or two. High resolution 
models indicate any remaining snow should be gone in the 15-16 
time frame. Back edge of the light precipitation is almost all out
of Wyoming. Main impact for this afternoon will be the cooler 
temperatures behind the front with readings only in the 30s today.

Ridging aloft will be building over the Northern Rockies with a 
moderate northerly flow over Colorado for tonight. Temperatures 
will be colder tonight especially in the mountains under mostly 
clear skies. 

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 247 AM MST Sun Feb 6 2022

Temperatures will be on the rise Monday under weak ridging aloft,
with highs climbing 5-10 degrees in the high country, and 10-15
degrees east of the mountains. Winds will also be on the increase
across the mountains and eastern plains Monday into Tuesday, with
conditions becoming more favorable for some mountain wave
development Monday night and Tuesday as cross-barrier flow peaks
and subsidence takes hold. 

Come Wednesday, strengthening northerly flow on the backside of a
trough will begin to advect greater moisture into the region, and
should help fuel some orographically-enhanced snow showers in the
mountains by the afternoon. An approaching north-south oriented
jet may provide some dynamical support under its left exit region
late Wednesday/early Thursday to boost precipitation chances
slightly for areas east of the mountains. The NBM appears too
conservative with PoPs for this period, so given the above
ingredients, have boosted PoPs to reflect at least a possibility
of some light precip for the urban corridors and plains.

Ridging then returns late Thursday into Friday, with no
precipitation expected. The next shot at widespread precipitation
will be around Saturday, but there is still considerable
uncertainty in the large-scale pattern, with solutions varying
widely. Still, about 30-40% of ensemble members depict some
measurable snow over the weekend for the lower elevations, with
higher chances in the mountains, so the potential is there.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 247 AM MST Sun Feb 6 2022

Post frontal regime in place at local terminals with northerly
surface winds 10-20kt and stratus deck ranging from 4000-6000ft
agl. This deck expected to scatter out 14-15z time frame as weak system
moves south of the area. Any snow this morning will be south and
west of the terminals. Surface northerly winds continuing this
afternoon before returning to drainage early this evening. 

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Entrekin
LONG TERM...Rodriguez
AVIATION...Entrekin