138 
AXCA72 TJSJ 041221
DGTSJU
PRC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-
031-033-035-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-053>055-057-059-061-
063-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091-093-
095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-
127-129-131-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153-VIC010-
020-030-050030-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
821 AM AST Fri Feb 4 2022

...Moderate (D1) to Extreme (D3) Drought conditions continue to 
prevail across the local islands. Additional deterioration is 
likely into late April before the usual onset of the wet season
on May...

SYNOPSIS...

Long term rainfall deficits continue to prevail across Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The 90-day rainfall deficits 
now range between 4 and 8 inches across most of Puerto Rico, 
except for a few spots across the western interior where there is 
a rainfall surplus of 2+ inches. The highest rainfall deficits 
(up to 12 inches) are observed across the eastern interior and 
portions of the northwest.

As far as the US Virgin Islands, the 90-day rainfall deficit 
ranges between 8 and 10 inches. 

Therefore, Moderate (D1) to Severe (D2) drought conditions are 
observed over Puerto Rico...while Severe (D2) to Extreme (D3) 
drought conditions are observed across Saint John and Saint 
Croix/Saint Thomas, respectively.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... 
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. 
Soil moisture data from the Puerto Rico Agricultural Water 
Management (PRAGWATER) continued to indicate very dry soils across
the southern slopes and the eastern interior of Puerto Rico as 
well as across portions of northwest Puerto Rico.

GROUNDWATER CONDITIONS.
Groundwater levels retrieved from the USGS network continued to 
indicate a decreasing trend across most of the representative 
wells. Several wells across southern Puerto Rico are in critical 
conditions with values much below the normal range.

RIVER AND STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS.
The 28-day average streamflow from the USGS river gauge network 
indicates most of the streamflows across Puerto Rico running well
below normal, with many of the sites having levels below the 10th
percentile. There is no streamflow data for the U.S. Virgin 
Islands. 

Based on data provided by the Puerto Rico Water Authority, a 
decreasing trend in the reservoirs levels has been observed as 
well. 

AGRICULTURE IMPACTS.
There have been reports of suffering vegetation across southern 
Puerto Rico as well as across the U.S. Virgin Islands. Several
cattle ranchers have reportedly sold a portion, or all, of their
cattle due to the high cost of maintaining cattle in drought
conditions. 

FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS.
The fire danger weather across the local islands continues to
increase as dryness intensifies. There are reports of soil
cracking, dried and brown grass particularly the southern slopes
of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
Overall below normal rainfall has been observed across the local
islands since Fall 2021 with near to above normal temperatures.
Some shower and thunderstorm activity has been observed at times,
but was not enough to improve drought conditions. 

The D2 and D3 conditions which are currently observed across
the islands are conditions that can be expected to occur every
10 to 20 years and 20 to 50 years,respectively. 

PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

EXTENDED FORECAST.
Based on the extended precipitation and temperature forecast 
by the Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF), there is no 
predictability across the northeast Caribbean including Puerto
Rico and the US Virgin Islands. However, climatologically 
speaking, the dry season continues into late April, before the 
onset of the wet season on May. 

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
As a result, due to the expected and observed conditions, the 
persistence and/or expansion of drought will remain the most 
likely scenario during the next few months with a decreasing 
trend in water levels at rivers, reservoirs and wells.

NEXT ISSUANCE...
THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED by the end of February OR SOONER IF 
NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu

NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM... 
https://www.drought.gov

NOAA WFO SJU DROUGHT PAGE...
https://www.weather.gov/sju/dss_climo

USGS...
https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis

CARIBBEAN INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY/ CIMH... 
https://rcc.cimh.edu.bb/outlook-precipitation

PR WATER AUTHORITY... 
https://acueductospr.com/niveles-de-los-embalses

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT 
INFORMATION STATEMENT... PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE
4000 CARRETERA 190
CAROLINA, PR 00979
PHONE: 787-253-4586
EMAIL: SR-SJU.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$