National Weather Service Raw Text Product

420 
FXUS62 KJAX 020517
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1217 AM EST Wed Feb 2 2022

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Thursday]

VFR through the period at all TAF sites. SSI will experience BKN
to OVC skies near 40-50 kft through 18Z, then the lower cloud deck
should start to break up. Very low chance of fog near GNV and 
VQQ 09-12Z, so left fog out of the TAFs for this morning. Winds 
will shift from northeasterly this morning to easterly at SSI and 
southeasterly at the other sites by this afternoon. Low chance of
isolated light showers near SSI/CRG today, but chances are too low
to include in the TAFs. Light winds are expected after 00Z 
Thursday.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [724 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Surface analysis highlights a weak area of high pressure just east
of the Florida First Coast, with a much stronger parent high
centered over southeastern Canada. Skies are mostly sunny at most
communities across the CWA. There is quite the temperature
gradient from west to east owed to the cold, northeasterly 
breezes right along the coastline. Temperatures right along the 
coast are hovering in the lower 60s, with temperatures inland in 
the upper 60s to near 70. All available nearby WSR-88D Doppler 
radars are void of any echo returns. Despite scattered cloud cover
expected to form in-situ at most communities overnight and a
slight increase in wind speeds relative to last night, patchy fog
is once again possible at the favored inland locations west of
interstate 301. Low temperatures tonight should range from the
upper 40s to near 50 inland to the mid 50s near the coast. No
changes are needed to the near-term forecast.


.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

The ridge associated with the aforementioned surface high will 
continue to slide off the Eastern Seaboard over the next couple of
days. With the axis of the ridge remaining over the Southeast, 
this will result in periods of breezy easterly winds and fair 
weather for Wednesday. As the surface high slides eastward into 
the Central Atlantic and a cold front approaches the Gulf Coast 
and the Florida Peninsula, winds will gradually veer to the 
southeast. Forecast soundings continue to highlight substantial 
dry air aloft and with minimal forcing for ascent, near-nil rain 
chances are expected through at least Thursday night (outside of a
passing isolated shower from the easterly breezes).


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

The cold front will reach the Jacksonville area late Friday night.
Ahead of the front, forecast soundings highlight deep moisture
streaming in from the southwest, and some MOS guidance is hinting
at the possibility of at least mention of slight general
thunderstorm risk. However, the best dynamical forcing for ascent
will be displaced north of the area, instability appears somewhat
limited, and shear profiles are far from impressive. Will leave 
mention of thunder out of the forecast for now for Friday night. 
However, it is worth noting that future forecast cycles may need 
to readdress this.

The front appears to stall in the vicinity of the CWA for much of
the weekend. This will result in bouts of at least chances for
scattered showers. The front will finally lift out of the area 
Sunday night, with cooler and drier conditions commencing for 
early next week. A potent shortwave trough associated with the 
southern trek of the jet stream may form in the vicinity of the 
Gulf Coast early next week, eventually reaching the Florida 
Peninsula by mid week. Plenty of time to monitor the progress of 
this feature. Stay tuned.


.MARINE...

There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect
for the local coastal waters. From synopsis, moderate northeast 
breezes will slowly veer to the east tonight through Wednesday, as
high pressure builds in the western North Atlantic. Breezes will 
veer further to the southeast to south for Wednesday night through
Friday ahead of a cold front. The cold front is expected to push 
through the coastal waters late Friday night or Saturday, before 
stalling in the vicinity of the local waters, with moderate north 
to northeast breezes expected for Saturday through much of Sunday.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines or a Small Craft
Advisory may be required over the weekend for portions of the
local marine zones.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk for rip currents is expected for 
the rest of this week, as onshore flow continues.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Surface and transport winds will be from the east
tonight and Wednesday, gradually veering to southeasterly
Wednesday night and Thursday. Patchy fog is possible for inland 
locations in the late overnight hours tonight and before sunrise 
on Wednesday, particularly along and west of highway 301, 
including Gainesville, Lake City, and Valdosta. Sufficient 
transport and deeper mixing heights will yield favorable 
dispersion during the daytime hours over the next couple of days. 
Meanwhile, onshore flow will elevate relative humidity through the
rest of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  71  56  78  59  76 /  10   0  10  20  60 
SSI  67  57  70  59  74 /  20  10  10  10  30 
JAX  72  60  75  60  79 /  10   0  10  10  20 
SGJ  72  62  74  59  78 /  10   0  10  10  10 
GNV  77  59  80  59  81 /   0   0   0  10  20 
OCF  77  58  81  59  82 /   0   0   0  10  10 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&