978 
FXUS63 KOAX 301015
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
415 AM CST Sun Jan 30 2022

...Updated Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 AM CST Sun Jan 30 2022

.Today and Monday:

A progressive northwesterly mid/upper flow pattern is in place 
across the central CONUS, with a cutoff low pressure system riding 
the north side of the subtropical jet entering the Desert Southwest. 
A few cirrus hooks are entering the forecast area from the 
northwest, with denser banks of high clouds soon to follow. This 
increased cloud cover compared to yesterday will work to reduce the 
effect of warming during the day today, with highs expected to be 
largely in the 40's and increasing temperatures as you go west. 
Northwest winds will switch southerly this afternoon at around 10 to 
15 mph.

Dry conditions continue through the beginning of the forecast 
period, and the lack of moisture is joined by somewhat gusty winds 
Monday afternoon out of the southwest. Gusts 25 to 30 mph are 
expected with sustained winds speeds just over 15 mph, and higher 
amounts are forecast farther into central Nebraska. Another day of 
efficient mixing is expected as well Monday to go along with 
increasing heights over the area, leading us to lean more towards 
the upper end of temperature guidance and lower end of guidance for 
dewpoint temperatures. The combination of warm and dry surface 
conditions and gusty winds will lead to increased potential for 
extreme fire danger Monday afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch has been 
issued for Platte to Knox counties and points westward. These 
conditions are expected to be a stark contrast to the pattern that 
begins moving into the area Tuesday, as potential winter weather 
moves into the central CONUS. 

.Tuesday through Thursday:

Beginning Tuesday, a progressive long wave troughing pattern is 
expected to develop and begin deepening over the western CONUS and 
pass through the area while shuffling a winter weather maker through 
the central CONUS. Strong PVA and some jet coupling will help usher 
in precip chances locally late Tuesday through Wednesday with the 
main question being the ability for deeper moisture to make it far 
enough north to have decent snowfall in the local forecast area. The 
southward trend of the main band of snowfall has continued with 
recent runs, with potential for Omaha and Lincoln to completely miss 
out on snow through the event as Kansas and Missouri shoulder the 
brunt of the snow in line with where the main areas of isentropic 
lift and frontogenesis coincide with moisture return from the south. 
As it looks right now, much of the forecast area is going to miss 
out on snow completely with areas that do get snowfall will see a 
few flakes falling to a dusting at most based on deterministic and 
ensemble snow output. Despite the lack of snow, we'll be able enjoy 
another short stint of below normal temperatures, as highs Wednesday 
and Thursday struggle to reach 20 degrees largely thanks to a 
surface high that pushes southeast out of Saskatchewan towards 
southern Minnesota. There is still room for the snow chances to move 
north or south at this point, with a northward track meaning warmer 
temperatures and higher snow totals while the opposite is true for a 
southern track.

.Friday and Saturday 

Closing out the forecast period will be northwest flow aloft 
transitioning to a weaker shortwave that should pass through the 
central CONUS early in the weekend. While a strong signal for above 
average temperatures doesn't exist for this portion of the forecast 
period, even a return to climatologically normal temperatures will 
be a huge and welcome improvement over Wednesday and Thursday. Dry 
conditions do look to close out the forecast period, with any 
appreciable precipitation continuing to dodge the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Sat Jan 29 2022

Current satellite imagery noting an expanding area of IFR and MVFR
ceilings advecting southward across South Dakota and Minnesota.
Western extent of these lower ceilings is further west than
NBM and ShortBlend clouds and ceilings. NAM, RUC and HRRR have
shown persistence in advecting MVFR ceilings into all the three
TAF sites.Less confident in persistent ceiling at KOFK and KLNK, 
thus only carried SCT012-015 with tempo for BKN012-015. More 
confidence of persistent MVFR ceiling at KOMA. Low level surface 
ridging moves east 17-19z and winds become south-southwest which
should help erode stratus. VFR conditions are expected at all
three TAF sites by 20Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon 
     for NEZ011-016-017-030-031-042.

IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Fortin