453 
FXUS63 KOAX 250452
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1052 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022

.Tonight through Tuesday night:

Subsidence/pressure rises associated with the passage of a 
shortwave trough through the mid-MO Valley earlier today has 
hastened the equatorward surge of arctic air into the region with
falling temperatures being observed at many locations as of early
afternoon. That trend will continue through the remainder of the
afternoon, even as skies clear from north-to-south. The clearing
skies coupled with decreasing winds should promote strong
radiational cooling overnight with lows of 0 to -3 across 
portions of northeast NE and southwest IA, and single digits 
above zero elsewhere.

The arctic air mass will remain in place on Tuesday into Tuesday
night. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 15-25 range. Lows on
Tuesday night will range from -5 to 5 above. Lowest chills of -15
to -19 are expected over portions of northeast NE tonight and
mainly western IA on Tuesday night.

.Wednesday through Friday:

A temporary period of midlevel ridging is forecast on Wednesday 
ahead of a series of shortwave troughs, which will traverse the 
north-central U.S. in the Wednesday night and Thursday timeframe. 
Those disturbances will be associated with a surface cold front, 
which is forecast to advance through the mid-MO Valley on 
Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

Fairly strong, low-level warm advection will occur ahead of the 
cold front on Wednesday, allowing temperatures to bounce back into
the 20s and 30s. Some low 40s are even possible over portions of 
northeast NE. On Thursday, higher NBM standard-deviation values 
for the maximum temperature suggest more uncertainty in the 
forecast. That is likely due to the front moving through the area.
So, while the official forecast will depict highs in the mid 30s 
to around 40, confidence in those values is not high. By Friday, a
low-level warm-advection pattern redevelops over the mid-MO 
Valley, supporting highs in the 30s to low 40s.

.This weekend:

Latest EPS/GEFS/CMCE mean, 500-mb height anomalies suggest the
gradual weakening of a longwave ridge over the western part of
North America, which is generally consistent with the
deterministic members of those ensemble systems. The resultant 
increase in zonal-wind-component across the Rockies will translate
to warmer temperatures over our area with highs mainly in the 30s
and 40s. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1051 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022

No significant aviation hazards are expected through 06Z 
Wednesday. Skies should remain VFR, with SKC-BKN AOA FL080 and 
unlimited visibility. Winds should be light from a northerly 
direction (4 to 12 kt).

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Albright