220 
FXUS63 KMPX 231808
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1208 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Sun Jan 23 2022

Updated to include the 18z aviation discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 334 AM CST Sun Jan 23 2022

Key Messages:

- Our third and final clipper will bring another couple inches of 
snow to eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin late tomorrow 
through early Monday. 

- Very cold air and dangerous wind chills return Monday night into 
Wednesday.

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY - Clear skies and cold air advection has sent
temperatures plummeting overnight, 3 to 6 degrees per hour in some
cases over central MN. Clouds are increasing again over the eastern 
Dakotas. This high cloud cover will spread east this morning ahead 
of the third and final clipper in this series. Light snow will push
into western MN early this afternoon and continue east into WI by the
evening. After producing about an inch, this batch of light snow 
will be about it with this system for many. There could be some 
patchy freezing drizzle behind it across MN for a time late this 
evening as mid levels dry out. Low level forcing is not too 
impressive, but it does exist, so am inclined to include this chance 
in the forecast. A second round of steadier snow will develop along 
the trailing cold front overnight from southwest MN northwestward 
into central and western ND. This snow will clip areas southwest of 
the upper MN River and could produce another inch.

Temperatures today through Monday should remain nearly steady in the
single digits, but as the system pushes through this evening, some 
warmer air will lift northeast and bring rising temps into the teens
and 20s south of I-94. 

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY - Main concern in the long term is 
another round of Arctic air that will settle in on Tuesday. A strong 
Canadian high will be working southward, sending temps back down well
below zero. Highs will struggle to reach zero Tuesday and lows 
Tuesday night may drop into the -20s in many areas. Wind chill 
headlines will likely be needed Monday night into Tuesday morning and
again Tuesday into Wednesday. The remainder of the week looks quiet 
with a brief return towards normal from Thursday into Saturday. 
Another shortwave drops out of Canada into the Great Lakes region on 
Thursday. An area of light precipitation is likely to accompany the 
system, but only a glancing blow across MN & WI with a few hundredths
of QPF at best.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Sun Jan 23 2022

Another day, another round of snow. Expecting cigs/vis to go MVFR/IFR
from west to east early this afternoon into this evening as light
snow spreads across the area. This will likely be a longer lived 
event than the past couple of days, with -SN and MVFR conditions
hanging around into Monday. Winds become northwesterly by early
Monday, with western Minnesota becoming gusty by the end of the
period.

KMSP...Bumped up snow onset time to 22z based on current radar
trends. Otherwise, no additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...AM MVFR cigs likely. Wind NW 10-20 kts. 
Tue...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...Borghoff/BPH 
AVIATION...Dye