197 
FXUS62 KJAX 221757
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1257 PM EST Sat Jan 22 2022

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Sunday]

IFR ceilings prevailed across the terminals this afternoon with
LIFR at SGJ. Gusty northerly winds wavered between NNW to NNE 
from 8-13 kts with gusts near 20 kts at coastal terminals,
including SGJ. Latest trends have been to hold only low stratus 
longer and indicated only gradual improvement to MVFR this evening
from SSI southward toward JAX/VQQ/CRG through while prevailing 
IFR conditions will continue through the night at GNV and SGJ. WNW
to NNW winds decrease to < 8 kts tonight at the coast to < 4 kts 
inland as low stratus lingers. After sunrise Sunday, low clouds 
will begin to break and lift into a low stratus deck trailing the 
passing of the low level 925 mb trough axis, ushering in drier WNW
flow in its wake and ceasing shallow isentropic lift. VFR
conditions are expected by 18z Sunday under WNW surface winds 6-9
kts. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [909 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Early morning update...Cold north flow has lowered temps into the
middle 30s along the Altamaha River Basin, but the back edge of
rainfall will likely push measurable rainfall out of the area
before any lower 30s temps can be realized around sunrise this
morning, so current Special Weather Statement (SPS) in effect
should cover the current scenario for potential light freezing
drizzle in the 5am-9am time frame, but not expecting any issues on
major roadways, just low potential on bridges and other exposed
surfaces.

Rest of Today...Otherwise next wave of energy will move along
frontal boundary across Central Florida continuing light rain and
drizzle at times across the rest of SE GA and all of NE FL through
the afternoon hours. Cloudy and cold daytime temps well below
normal are expected with very little bump upwards from current
temps only into the upper 30s/near 40 degrees for SE GA and lower
to middle 40s for NE FL. These will be the lowest daytime Maximum
temps since January of 2018. Wind chills will remain in the 25-35
degree range for most of the day with North winds at 10-20 mph 
continuing. 

Tonight...Any lingering drizzle across coastal NE FL this evening
should end by midnight with a slow decrease in cloudiness from NW
to SE across the area after midnight, and this will allow for some
diurnal decrease in temps as cloud cover becomes partly cloudy
towards sunrise as well as shift in winds to Northwest with a
decreasing trend towards morning. A widespread light freeze is
still expected over most inland areas, but some lower confidence
about cloud cover decreasing and have left it as a Freeze Watch
for now with next package can decide on actual Warning locations.
Still appears to be too many potential clouds and enough light
Northwest flow to prevent a widespread Hard Freeze (Min Temps <=
26F) over inland SE GA and for now expect just widespread upper
20s and some Frost potential if skies can clear enough and light
winds can develop. The Northwest flow will push the chill all the
way to the Atlantic Coast with middle 30s expected in the JAX
metro area and south through the I-95 corridor/St. Johns River
Basin.


.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Tuesday Night]...

High pressure ridge will build east toward the region Sunday, then
become centered over area on Monday. With the high to the west 
on Sunday, the flow will be from the northwest. While this flow is
expected to be dry with clear skies, it will continue to advect 
in cooler air. Highs on Sunday will be below normal with readings 
ranging from the mid 50s over SE GA to the upper 50s to around 60 
over NE FL. The cool flow will continue into Sunday night with 
lows generally around 30, away from the coast. But with the flow 
from the west, the cool air will push all the way to the beaches. 
So, even the coastal islands will experience lows in the middle 
30s. Mainly clear skies expected Monday under the high, with highs
ranging from the upper 50s in SE GA, to around 60 to the lower 
60s in NE FL. 

The high will move to the east Monday night, as an area of low
pressure approaches from the west. Clouds will be on the 
increase from the west through the night, with showers moving into
western counties overnight. The flow will become more from the 
southeast during the night, yielding a milder night, with lows 
ranging from the upper 30s to around 40 for SE GA, to the lower to
middle 40s NE FL. 

The low will move across area Tuesday, bringing a chance for
showers. Limited instability in the seasonal airmass, so not 
anticipating thunderstorms at this time. The low will track away 
to the northeast Tuesday night, with troughing lingering over 
area. Shower chances will linger through the night. Temperatures 
will depend on low track Tuesday. The ECMWF has a more southerly 
track with cooler air in region, so readings will be lower, 
whereas the GFS tracks further north as it crosses, allowing 
warmer air to advect in ahead of its passage.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Friday]...

As the trough moves away Wednesday, high pressure will build from 
the northwest. Skies will clear into the afternoon with cool air 
filtering in on northwest flow.  

The high will build more to the north Thursday, then northeast on
Friday. An inverted trough is expected to develop in the onshore
flow pattern Thursday into Friday, which could lead to coastal 
showers. As the trough develops it will lead to a tightening 
pressure gradient, enhancing winds. This will yield gusty
conditions at the beaches. Temperatures will trend below normal 
this period.


.MARINE...

Small craft advisory conditions will continue through tonight for
all local waters under brisk NNE winds 20 kts this morning with 
gusts near 25 kts at times, subsiding to 15-20 kts into the 
evening. Combined seas ranged from 4-7 ft over the nearshore 
waters to 5-9 ft over the outer waters. 

Rip Currents: Upgrade St. Johns & Flagler county coasts to a High
Rip Current Risk today given persistent Northerly flow impacting
the coastline (in addition to swells 1-2 ft with periods near 10
sec). Moderate rip current risk continues for all other local
beaches today. Breakers will range from 4-6 ft along the NE FL
coast today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  27  53  29  58  38 /   0   0   0   0  10 
SSI  33  54  35  57  44 /   0   0   0   0  10 
JAX  31  55  32  60  42 /   0   0   0   0  10 
SGJ  36  56  36  60  45 /   0   0   0   0  10 
GNV  32  55  30  61  40 /   0   0   0   0  10 
OCF  35  57  30  63  40 /   0   0   0   0  10 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for Baker-
     Bradford-Coastal Nassau-Eastern Alachua-Eastern Clay-
     Eastern Putnam-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Nassau-Northern 
     Columbia-Southern Columbia-Suwannee-Trout River-Union-
     Western Alachua-Western Clay-Western Duval-Western Putnam.

     High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal 
     Flagler-Coastal St. Johns.

GA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for 
     Appling-Atkinson-Bacon-Brantley-Clinch-Coastal Camden-
     Coastal Glynn-Coffee-Echols-Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff 
     Davis-Northeastern Charlton-Northern Ware-Pierce-Southern 
     Ware-Wayne-Western Charlton.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for Waters from 
     Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 
     NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters 
     from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal 
     waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 
     20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for Coastal 
     waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&