228 
FXUS66 KOTX 151206
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
406 AM PST Sat Jan 15 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Low clouds, fog and light winds will persist. A dry weather 
pattern will be in place for the weekend. Precipitation chances 
return to some areas early next week, with the potential for 
light mountain snow, but no major winter storm systems are 
anticipated at this time. 



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Sunday: A weak ridge along the coast is keeping the 
region generally dry. It is expected to bring benign weather for 
the Inland Northwest. The main concern is the continuing overnight
fog and below freezing temperatures creating icy conditions for 
untreated surfaces during the morning hours. Fog will decrease 
through the day. Ensembles indicate a very slight chance of 
isolated shower activity for North Idaho but confidence is low.
Winds will continue to be light and variable under the stable
airmass. Highs for the period will be in the 30s. Lows will be in
the 20s. /JDC

Monday through Tuesday...The strong upper level ridge axis this 
weekend is expected to flatten as a weak upper level trough 
crosses SW BC and merges with one sweeping southeast across the 
BC/AB border. The main result of this will be an increasing threat
of light precipitation near the Canadian border, beginning Monday
and spreading slowly southward through Tuesday. The mid-level 
flow will remain primarily out of the west suggesting most of the 
precipitation is going to fall near the Cascade Crest and pick up 
again over the Idaho Panhandle. Meanwhile most of central 
Washington will miss out on the precipitation due to downslope 
flow over the Cascades. During this 48 hour period precipitation 
amounts could range from 0.15-0.30” along the immediate Cascade 
Crest, and anywhere from 0.08-0.15” over the Idaho Panhandle. 
Based on 850 mb temperatures most of this will fall as snow north 
of Highway 2, however as it sinks southward we could see a 
transition from snow to rain, as well as a small chance of messy 
wintry precipitation in the lee of the Cascades. This is due to a 
persistent elevated melting layer over the southern half of 
eastern Washington. Again, we don’t have a lot of precipitation 
across central Washington, but if this notion changes, we’d will
likely have to increasing messaging on this potential. 

Wednesday through Friday...All the ensemble model solutions 
are depicting a re-amplification of the upper level ridge over 
the region. The big question is how amplified will it become? 
Unlike yesterday’s model runs which showed the GEFS as an 
outlier with a very strong 570dm ridge over the region, today’s 
solutions are generally supportive of a flatter ridge. The 
offshoot is we are looking at a continued threat of light 
precipitation near the Cascades and over the ID Panhandle through 
at least Thursday. By this time, any precipitation which falls 
will generally consist of rain or snow as any elevated melting 
layer will likely shift well south of the forecast area. By 
Friday, the model remain in good agreement, that the ridge will 
amplify strongly along 132w, with northerly flow developing over 
the region. The deterministic runs of the GFS and EC place the jet
well north of the area on Friday and keep any threat of 
precipitation well north and east of the forecast area, however 
the ensemble means hold onto a threat of light precipitation, 
especially over the southern half of the ID Panhandle due to 
upslope northwest flow. In any case, this looks like a fairly 
benign weather pattern for most of the region. 

Temperatures for this period will generally run near normal
or warmer than normal which equates to highs in the 30s to lower 
40s, however this is far from certain as much will depend on how 
effectively (if at all) we mix out any low-level inversions. fx

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: The region will influenced by low ceilings and fog 
through the period. They will lead to IFR conditions for most 
sites. KPUW-KLWS are expected to be MVFR to VFR. Brief periods in 
the afternoon could bring MVFR for portions of the rest of the 
region. Any improvements will will decline back to IFR conditions 
during the overnight hours. /JDC




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        35  28  35  27  36  27 /  10   0   0   0   0   0 
Coeur d'Alene  36  26  36  27  38  27 /   0   0   0   0   0  10 
Pullman        37  27  37  28  38  29 /   0   0   0   0   0  10 
Lewiston       41  30  39  30  42  32 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Colville       35  26  34  26  34  26 /  10   0   0   0   0   0 
Sandpoint      35  28  35  27  35  29 /  10   0   0   0  10  10 
Kellogg        38  26  38  29  39  30 /   0   0   0   0   0  10 
Moses Lake     33  26  33  25  34  24 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 
Wenatchee      33  25  31  26  33  29 /   0   0   0   0   0  10 
Omak           34  23  31  25  33  27 /   0   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until noon PST today for Moses Lake Area-
     Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-
     Waterville Plateau. 


&&

$$