117 
FXUS65 KBOU 141018
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
318 AM MST Fri Jan 14 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM MST Fri Jan 14 2022

Main concerns through tonight will be the high wind potential on 
the plains and snow chances for the mountains and adjacent plains.
Currently, water vapor imagery showing upper low dropping south 
and southeast through Idaho and far Western Wyoming. There is an 
initial cold front over now moving into northeast Colorado while a 
secondary surge is just moving into Northern Wyoming and this 
will drop into the plains by later this morning with increasing 
winds and a chance of snow. The initial moisture not that 
impressive with very little precipitation occurring over the 
Northern Rockies. 

There is some concern over high winds over the Eastern plains of 
Colorado, especially further south over Lincoln county. Forecast 
soundings show 55kt just below 750mb this afternoon with enough 
mixing in that layer to bring the stronger winds. In addition, QG 
fields showing increasing subsident airmass with 15-20mb/hr descent 
over the plains. Peak winds from HRRR/RAP also showing 45-50kt this 
afternoon/early evening over Lincoln county. This is all occurring
as the upper trof intensifies over Kansas tonight. Will issue a 
high wind warning for Eastern Elbert and Lincoln counties for this
afternoon/evening hours with wind gusts up to 60 mph. Certainly 
quite a bit of wind elsewhere on the plains but winds generally in
the 30-50 mph range. 

As for the snow potential in the mountains, there will be a period 
of light snow but moisture depth is not all that deep and orographic 
flow is a bit unfavorable from the north and northwest. Still 
looks to be a 1 to 3 inch snowfall and not worthy of any hilites. 
Appears the best focus area will be over foothill locations of 
Jefferson and Douglas counties given orographic favored northerly 
flow into that area. Models showing 2-4 inches in those areas and 
looks reasonable considering the flow. As the storm system moves
away from Colorado, the winds and snow will diminish overnight. 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 304 AM MST Fri Jan 14 2022

More dry conditions are expected ahead. Models indicate moderately
strong northerly flow aloft for the CWA Saturday into Saturday 
night with upper ridging to our west over the Great Basin. By late
Saturday night into Sunday, the flow aloft becomes more northwesterly.
By Sunday night, the flow aloft is more zonal and fairly weak 
with the upper ridge getting into western Colorado. The QG Omega 
fields show weak downward synoptic scale motion for the forecast 
area Saturday through Sunday night. The boundary layer winds should
be normal diurnal patterns. The airmass over the CWA looks dry 
Saturday through Sunday night, maybe some high cloudiness, but that
is about it. The QPF fields show nothing. No pops through Sunday 
night. For temperatures, Saturday's highs look to be below 
normals. Sunday's highs warm up 3-5 C from Saturday's.

For the later days, Monday through Thursday, there is supposed to be 
an upper ridge over the CWA on Monday with a dry airmass in place. 
Very weak upper troughing is indicated Tuesday through Thursday, 
depending on the model.  There will be limited moisture around. The 
best chance for some snow will be Wednesday afternoon and 
evening, and mainly just over the alpine areas. Temperatures will
be a bit above seasonal normals Monday through Wednesday, then 
near normal on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 304 AM MST Fri Jan 14 2022

Initial surge of colder air moving into terminals as winds
shifting northerly through 12z. Expect the northerly winds to
increase through the morning hours with speeds in the 25-35kt
range. Best chance of snow showers will be from late morning
through late afternoon and best chance for any accumulating snow 
at APA but amounts under an inch. Mainly MVFR conditions 
developing with light snow showers. Conditions improving tonight. 

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this 
evening for COZ046-047.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Entrekin
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Entrekin