925 
FXUS64 KTSA 031618
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1018 AM CST Mon Jan 3 2022

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1018 AM CST Mon Jan 3 2022

High pressure will reign supreme today across eastern 
Oklahoma and western Arkansas resulting in sunny skies 
and temperatures that are much closer to normal than those 
that occurred on Sunday. The current forecast for today is 
on track with only a few minor adjustments made to better 
reflect current trends. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 231 AM CST Mon Jan 3 2022

The general synoptic pattern through the extended periods will be
fairly progressive with several shortwave troughs and associated
cold fronts moving through the region. While the pattern will
remain progressive, any impactful weather will remain limited. The
main forecast impact will be the roller coaster of temperatures,
with generally dry conditions prevailing for most of the region
through the weekend.

Increasing southerly winds into Monday night will keep 
temperatures from bottoming out like the previous two nights, with
lows forecast to remain in the upper 20s to near 30. The warming 
trend will continue into Tuesday as a low level thermal ridge 
pushes into the area from the west. Temperatures will be quite a 
bit warmer than average on Tuesday, especially for areas west of 
Highway 69 in eastern Oklahoma along the axis warmest 850mb temps.
A deepening surface low will develop in the Texas Panhandle, 
resulting in a rather tight surface pressure gradient Tuesday 
afternoon and gusty southerly winds are expected. Some locations 
could near Wind Advisory criteria and will be evaluated in later 
forecasts. This initial dry return flow will also raise fire 
weather concerns, particularly across eastern Oklahoma where 
humidity values will be lowest Tuesday afternoon.

A cold front will move through overnight Tuesday as a subtle mid
level wave passes north of the area. This frontal passage will
remain dry and cooler temperatures will follow the front on 
Wednesday. A stronger, more amplified shortwave will pass through
the Plains late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing a stronger push
of a more polar airmass into the area. Highs on Thursday will
range from the lower 20s across far northeast Oklahoma to near 40
along the Red River. Generally dry conditions are expected again with
this system. An enhanced area of mid level frontogenetical ascent
will be present near the OK/KS border into Northwest Arkansas 
overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning, and some areas of light
snow cannot be ruled out in these areas. This forecast will 
maintain previous forecasts and carry a slight chance of snow for 
these areas into Thursday morning. Light accumulations would be 
expected as the heavier snow banding should stay north of the area
where the better forcing and mid level moisture resides.

The cold air will be mostly a glancing blow, with zonal flow aloft
returning for Friday into the weekend. This will allow for the
airmass to quickly recover and temperatures are expected to be
back well above normal by Saturday. The up and down will continue
as another system and cold front currently looks on track for the
end of the weekend. Increasing southerly winds will bring some
moisture back into the area ahead of this system and some low rain
chances will be possible toward the end of the forecast across our
eastern areas. The better chances still appear to be mainly into 
Arkansas and the Southeast, but changes in the track and timing 
could bring better rain and storm chances more into our area as it
gets closer.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 458 AM CST Mon Jan 3 2022
Surface ridge axis starting to shift east this morning with 
light south winds expected this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR 
conditions will prevail through the forecast period. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  31  56  30 /   0   0   0   0 
FSM   46  25  53  31 /   0   0   0   0 
MLC   47  29  55  32 /   0   0   0   0 
BVO   47  25  55  25 /   0   0   0   0 
FYV   46  22  51  29 /   0   0   0   0 
BYV   45  28  52  31 /   0   0   0   0 
MKO   45  27  53  30 /   0   0   0   0 
MIO   44  28  52  26 /   0   0   0   0 
F10   47  29  55  31 /   0   0   0   0 
HHW   45  25  55  32 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...12