251 
FXUS63 KOAX 182325
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
525 PM CST Sat Dec 18 2021

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CST Sat Dec 18 2021

We got a brief taste of winter today.  Temperatures only managed to 
reach into the 20s by 2PM this afternoon. Although, blustery 
northwest winds made it feel like the teens and single digits. To 
add to our wintry vibe, we even managed to squeeze a few snowflakes 
out of the stratus deck that blanketed the region. 

High pressure will continue to build at the the surface this 
evening, as an upper level ridge moves into the Rockies. 
Temperatures will drop into the lower teens and single digits 
tonight, as gradually clearing skies aide radiational cooling. A 
midlevel trough traveling along the southern Canadian border will 
draw southwesterly flow back into the region, Sunday. While it will 
be breezy, with winds gusting up to 30 mph at times, this will boost 
our temperatures back into the upper 30s and lower 40s by Sunday 
afternoon. That puts us a couple of degrees above average for this 
time of year.  

Temperatures dip into the teens and low 20s Sunday night. A surface 
high passing from our northwest to our northeast will bring our 
winds back around to the north, Monday, capping highs in the 20s and 
30s for most of the area. Beyond Monday, the forecast will remain 
warmer and dry. Highs will be in the 30s and 40s Tuesday and 
Wednesday, before reaching the 40s and 50s, Thursday and Friday. 
That's around 10-15 degrees above normal for late December! 

If you're dreaming of a white Christmas, keep dreaming. Highs are 
currently expected to remain in the 40s and 50s both Christmas Eve 
and Christmas Day. The ECMWF continues to hint at the potential for 
a wave coming out of the Rockies, to bring us some precipitation on 
the night before Christmas, and into Christmas day. At this 
juncture it appears that it would be mostly rain for our area. 
However, uncertainty is fairly high with it still being several 
days away, not to mention, no other models are buying into this 
solution yet. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 525 PM CST Sat Dec 18 2021

Pesky MVFR cloud deck should gradually scatter out this evening, 
eventually giving way to clear skies and VFR conditions across the
area. Northwesterly winds will become southerly overnight and 
then gust in the 20 to 25 kt range by mid to late morning Sunday. 
The strongest gusts will likely be in the afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...CA