049 
FXUS64 KTSA 081612
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1012 AM CST Wed Dec 8 2021

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1011 AM CST Wed Dec 8 2021

The return of sunshine and southerly winds are heralding the start
of a warming trend today. The current forecast is on track, and no
update is planned at this time. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 219 AM CST Wed Dec 8 2021

The aforementioned PV max over Las Vegas will get kicked to the 
east as jet energy punches in from the Pacific to its west. As the
system slides across the central Plains tonight into Thursday 
morning, the surface response will tighten the gradient across the
region resulting in a ramp up in winds/gusts. While not expected 
to be advisory levels, the increasing mid, high and eventually low
cloud along with the winds argues for raising overnight lows 
above blended guidance (NBM), which sits near the bottom of the 
guidance envelope. Clouds clear during the day Thursday in the 
wake of that wave, at least for a time, with high clouds again on 
the increase toward the end of the day. Still, warming trend 
continues with values approaching records in the 70s. Surface 
winds will trend lower during the warmest/driest part of the day 
Thursday, lessening the fire weather threat. Went above NBM 
guidance lows again Thursday night with southerly flow, rising 
dewpoints and cloud cover.

The aforementioned jet energy punching in from the Pacific today
will be the system that affects our area on Friday. A banana
shaped surface low develops near the KS/MO border, before
consolidating as it lifts northeast into MO Ozarks by afternoon. 
A Pacific front/dryline will slide across the region during the 
day south of the low, with increasing southwest flow and drier air
working its way into eastern OK, especially west of highway 75. 
There, humidities dropping into the 20s combined with gusty 
southwest winds will yield elevated fire weather concerns. Current
indications from the usually reliable NAM suggest that winds may 
not be quite strong enough for fire weather headlines, but this 
will be reevaluated in future forecasts. The stronger polar front 
will then sweep southeast across the region late in the day into 
the evening. Data has trended lower with thunder potential ahead 
of the front, with the better chances staying to the east over 
central AR. The data has trended a bit lower for forecast highs 
Friday, likely due to cloud cover concerns, which are a much 
bigger factor this time of year with the low sun angle and shorter
daytime. Thus, while temps are not as likely to threaten all-time
December highs as it looked yesterday, some daily records are 
still in jeopardy.

Temps get knocked back quite a bit Saturday closer to average for
this time of year behind the storm system and front, but this 
will be temporary. By early next week, models develop a deep
trough along the West Coast, with broad ridging downstream over
much of the CONUS. Thus, a quick warm-up is expected with the
weather feeling more spring like than winter like. The main
adjustment to the NBM was to overnight lows, especially Monday and
Tuesday nights with southerly flow, increasing moisture and cloud
cover expected. The NBM forecast highs were well placed in the
guidance envelope so no changes were needed. Temps in the 70s
return to some places by Tuesday.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 413 AM CST Wed Dec 8 2021

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Southerly winds
will increase mid to late evening at all terminals except FSM,
with gusts from 20-25kts likely thereafter.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  49  73  53 /   0   0   0   0 
FSM   60  44  73  56 /   0   0   0  10 
MLC   61  50  75  57 /   0   0   0   0 
BVO   58  43  72  48 /   0   0   0   0 
FYV   59  43  70  52 /   0   0   0  10 
BYV   57  43  68  53 /   0   0   0  10 
MKO   57  46  71  54 /   0   0   0   0 
MIO   56  44  68  50 /   0   0   0   0 
F10   60  48  73  55 /   0   0   0   0 
HHW   61  49  74  59 /   0  10   0  10 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...22