943 
FXUS61 KCLE 262112
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
412 PM EST Fri Nov 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure has begun to build north across the western Great
Lakes region as a surface trough lingers across the eastern part
of the region. This trough will move east out of the area
tonight, allowing high pressure to briefly build in Saturday. A
low pressure system will move through the region Saturday night
into Sunday, followed by an additional system Sunday night into
Monday.A surface trough lingers behind these systems until
midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Scattered lake effect snow showers are still impacting areas in
the snowbelt this afternoon. Dry air has begun to push into the
area with areas along and west of I-71 seeing dewpoints in the 
teens. This will continue to push east, gradually ending the 
lake effect snow from west to east this evening into the
overnight hours. This will result in little to no additional
snowfall accumulation in areas of the OH snowbelt. In NW PA,
the heaviest of lake effect snow has begun to move east of the 
area as a result of weakening thermodynamic parameters and a 
diminishing area of convergence along the lakeshore in Erie
County. This does not eliminate the potential for lake effect as
850-mb temperatures remain between -10 to -12C and weak to
moderate lake induced instability lingers. As a result, areas in
the Lake Effect Snow Warning, which is valid until 7 AM
Saturday, may receive an additional 1-3 inches of new snowfall,
with locally higher amounts possible. Aside from snow, gusty
winds up to 25mph from the west-northwest will gradually weaken
to light and variable overnight. Overnight low temperatures 
will be in the upper 20s to low 30s. 

On Saturday, high pressure will build over the area briefly,
allowing for dry conditions to persist into the afternoon for
much of the area and warmer temperatures with highs in the 
upper 30s to low 40s, resulting from an increase in WAA due to 
south- southwest winds of 5-10 mph. Rain/snow showers will begin
to creep into NW Ohio late morning/early afternoon on Saturday
as another low pressure system impacts the Great Lakes region.
By late afternoon/early evening, all precipitation should be
only snow, with the exception along the lakeshore where it may
remain above freezing. The bulk of this system impacts the area
during the short term period, but for Saturday, little to no
accumulation is expected. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A weak clipper system will move west to east across the area on 
Saturday night. Model runs over the last 24 hours have trended 
slightly farther north with the low track and associated placement 
of precipitation developing along the 850-700mb front. To account 
for this, have trended pops down across the southern counties and 
removed any light accumulation south of Route 30. Farther north, a 
window of snow is possible with accumulations of a half inch to
an inch. As the night progresses, dry air will wrap up from the
south along with warm advection in the 925-850mb layer which 
could result in a change over to drizzle/freezing drizzle where 
precipitation lingers. Given the lack of deep layer moisture 
which will extend nearly as far north as Lake Erie on Sunday, 
much of the area will see precipitation end or become light 
during the morning hours. 

By later Sunday, an upper level trough will deepen as it crosses 
Lake Erie, bringing a return of deeper moisture across the snowbelt 
and an increase in cold advection. In the low levels, a somewhat 
compact trough that had been in place over the lake, will act as a 
focus for precipitation. This trough will swing across the snowbelt 
with additional light to moderate accumulations possible. Early 
estimates suggest accumulations of 1-5 inches with the higher 
amounts across inland NW Pennsylvania. Temperatures which are 
forecast to warm into the mid/upper 30s on Sunday may be a factor 
for how quickly this transitions back to snow and begins to 
accumulate during the late afternoon/early evening hours. Deeper 
moisture pulls away by Monday morning with snow tapering off. Flow 
will also back on Monday as the surface ridge builds into the Ohio 
Vally, focusing any lingering precipitation closer to the
lakeshore. 

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Prevailing northwest flow pattern will continue through mid-week 
while a series of shortwave troughs cross the Great Lakes and New 
England. Uncertainty remains in how far south the colder air extends 
during this time frame with temperatures in the near to below normal 
range. Some light precipitation is possible Monday night as a weak 
clipper crosses the central and eastern Great Lakes but the flow 
will generally be southwesterly so Lake Erie will be less of a 
factor. Another shot of precipitation will be possible behind a 
front Tuesday night into Wednesday. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Primary aviation concern for this TAF update remains for KERI,
and possibly KCLE, as lake effect snow showers continue.
Currently, radar and satellite indicate light snow showers from
KLPR extending east to KHZY and KYNG. The heaviest of these 
snow showers have a history of brief reductions of visibilities 
to IFR distances, however generally speaking these should keep
visibilities 3SM or more. KERI remains the primary concern with
snowfall as a Lake Huron connection has developed and light to
moderate snow is falling. Visibilities have frequently fallen to
IFR, even LIFR at times, along with lower ceilings in some of
the heavier bands. This trend will continue into Saturday
morning before the surface trough finally moves east, dry air
moves in, and lake effect snow is cut-off.

For all other TAF sites, an isolated flurry is possible, however
visibilities should not be impacted from precipitation. Ceilings
are expected to fluctuate between MVFR and VFR this afternoon
before becoming steady VFR heights tonight. West-northwest winds
sustained to 10-15 knots, gusting up to 25 knots, will persist
through 00Z as high pressure begins to build over the area.
Winds will become light and variable for all terminals, except
KERI, late tonight. 

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in snow Friday through Sunday in
Northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds have come down enough on western Lake Erie to allow the Small 
Craft Advisory to expire west of the Lake Erie Islands, while 
remaining in effect for tonight east of the Islands. East of the 
islands, northwest winds of 20-30 knots will continue through the 
evening, gradually decreasing into the 15-20 knot range by morning. 
Waves of 7-11 feet will decrease to 2 to 4 feet by Saturday morning. 

A ridge will build east across the lower Great Lakes on Saturday 
with winds backing around to the south ahead of the next system. 
This system will cross Lake Erie Saturday night, before slowly 
moving to New York state by Monday. West to northwest winds ramp up 
behind this low and additional Small Craft Advisories will be needed 
Sunday into Sunday night. Another ridge will build east across the 
region on Monday followed by another weak clipper system crossing 
the central and eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday. 

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for PAZ001-003.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for PAZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for LEZ146>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LEZ144-145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Campbell
MARINE...KEC