391 
FXUS63 KOAX 212112
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
312 PM CST Sun Nov 21 2021

...Updated Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 3 PM CST Sun Nov 21 2021

At 3 PM, surface high pressure was settling into the northern 
Plains, while a surface trough was moving through the Great Lakes.
Between the two, surface pressure gradients were strong enough to
produce breezy north winds. Peak winds gusts in eastern Nebraska 
and western Iowa this afternoon were around 35 mph, with the 45 
plus mph gusts limited to north central Iowa. Otherwise skies were
clear, and temperatures were in the 40s north of Interstate 80 
and low 50s south of Interstate 80.

Tonight and Monday:

Winds should decrease quickly this evening as surface high 
pressure settles in and the boundary layer decouples. Leaving us
with light and variable winds overnight. Meanwhile, increasing 
moisture above 700 mb should bring the return of high cloud cover 
overnight. This could limit lows by a couple degrees, but 
temperatures will likely still fall into the 20s by sunrise 
Monday.

Surface high pressure should shift to our east Monday. As it does
so, southerly winds will return to the region. High temperatures 
Monday afternoon should range from the 50s in Columbus and 
Norfolk to the upper 40s in Omaha and western Iowa.

Warmer & Windy Tuesday:

Upper level ridging builds in rapidly from the west Tuesday. It 
should be accompanied by increasing southerly winds (WAA), 850 mb 
temperatures near 13 C, a boundary layer favorable for mixing and 
ample sunshine. Taken as a whole, this implies significantly 
warmer weather. Increased forecast high temperatures towards the 
75th percentile of the NBM along the Missouri River Valley, and 
the 90th percentile from Norfolk down to Beatrice. This gives 
most of the region afternoon highs in the 60s, though it is 
entirely possible that a couple sites could touch 70 degrees
briefly. The southerly winds, noted earlier, should gust 25 to 35
mph in the afternoon and this will reduce the overall 
enjoyability of the warmer temperatures.

Wednesday & Thanksgiving:

Ensembles continue to project a cold frontal passage Wednesday,
with a transition to colder temperatures for Thanksgiving. Looks 
like Thanksgiving will be the coolest day this week with highs 
only in the upper 30s and low 40s. This period should also see 
breezy north winds, with an upper level trough providing support 
for gusts in the 25 to 40 mph range. As of the current forecast, 
Wind Advisory conditions aren't expected.

Warming into the Weekend:

The general trend amongst the ensembles favors rising 500 mb
heights in Iowa and Nebraska as ridging builds over the Rockies 
this weekend. This suggests a warming trend and the current 
forecast favors highs in the lower 50s Saturday and Sunday. Dry 
weather will likely continue as the ridge shunts the prevailing 
storm track well north of our region. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1051 AM CST Sun Nov 21 2021

Northerly winds of 15 to 20 kt with gusts of 25 to 35 knots will
continue over the region through around 23Z Today. Winds should
weaken quickly after 23Z, be light and variable over night, then
become southerly after 09Z Monday. Besides the winds, VFR 
conditions will prevail through at least 18Z Monday.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Albright
AVIATION...Albright