108 
FXUS63 KICT 152352
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
552 PM CST Mon Nov 15 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 225 PM CST Mon Nov 15 2021

Main challenge are cloud trends on Tuesday which could impact high
temperatures, then frontal timing and chances for light precip
along the boundary Tuesday night/early Wednesday. Significant
upper trof moving into the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest 
this evening will progress steadily eastward reaching the north 
central conus Tuesday afternoon. Shallow low level moisture is 
progged across southeast Kansas Tuesday morning and is expected to
manifest into some stratus cigs. Meanwhile, a plethora of mid and
high level moisture/clouds are expected to advect/develop 
downstream of the approaching upper trof across the rest of 
Kansas. So, while temperatures will remain unseasonably mild and 
much above climo in the 70s, they will be well shy of records on 
Tuesday. Combination of lift just ahead of the advancing cold 
front late Tuesday night and continued low level moist advection 
may result in patchy drizzle/light rain per previous discussion 
and going forecast across southeast Kansas. Otherwise, drier/cold 
advection behind the frontal passage on Wednesday will drop 
temperatures some 20 to 25 degrees for daytime highs to a bit 
below seasonal climo. It will remain so into Thursday in the wake 
of the departing upper trof as high pressure at the surface drifts
over the area. 

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Mon Nov 15 2021

A moderating trend close to seasonal climo Friday into Saturday 
as somewhat more zonal westerly flow prevails as a couple of 
relatively low amplitude shortwaves move across the central conus.
This may allow a weak trof/cold front to move southeast across 
the area late Saturday. There appears to be more support for a 
more amplified, deeper longwave trof to evolve across the eastern 
conus by Sunday night/Monday which would suggest more significant 
cooling by late in the weekend/early next week. Chances for 
measurable precip look very small to nil.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 551 PM CST Mon Nov 15 2021

VFR conditions are expected for most locations for the next 24 
hours. The only exception may be across SE KS for the daylight hours 
on Tue.  As low level moisture begins to increase, think a mid level 
cloud deck will move into SE KS and affect the KCNU taf site. There 
is some short range model solutions suggest even some IFR and LIFR 
cigs with some potential drizzle. For now will hint at some SCT MVFR 
cigs for now for KCNU.  

Ketcham

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 225 PM CST Mon Nov 15 2021

Stout/gusty south winds on Tuesday, mainly along/east of I-135, 
and north winds Wednesday across most locations will support very
high grassland fire danger for warm season grasses/pastures that 
are at least 90-100 percent cured. Elevated fire danger may also 
prevail Friday as south winds increase again. In all instances, 
marginal combination of wind, temperature, and humidity will 
prevent critical/red flag conditions. 

KED/ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    44  74  45  53 /   0   0  10   0 
Hutchinson      44  75  41  52 /   0   0   0   0 
Newton          45  73  43  51 /   0   0  10   0 
ElDorado        46  73  46  52 /   0   0  10   0 
Winfield-KWLD   46  75  48  55 /   0   0  20   0 
Russell         44  77  38  50 /   0   0   0   0 
Great Bend      44  76  39  50 /   0   0   0   0 
Salina          45  75  41  52 /   0   0   0   0 
McPherson       44  74  41  51 /   0   0   0   0 
Coffeyville     47  74  54  62 /   0   0  20  20 
Chanute         46  73  50  57 /   0   0  20  20 
Iola            46  72  49  55 /   0   0  20  20 
Parsons-KPPF    47  73  53  60 /   0   0  20  20 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...Ketcham
FIRE WEATHER...KED/ADK