336 
FXUS62 KMHX 151816
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
116 PM EST Mon Nov 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure dominates through Thursday before the next cold 
front approaches and moves through the area early Friday 
morning. Cold high pressure then rebuilds Friday through the 
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1230 PM Mon...Clear skies and falling dew points this
afternoon with gusty NW/downsloping low level flow. Have issued
Increased Fire Danger Statement for this afternoon given
persistent drought. Otherwise, no significant chances made with
the midday update.

Prev discussion...Transitory shortwave trough apparent on H2O 
vapor imagery sliding eastward through VA early this morning. 
This will knock hts/thicknesses down today, and lead to the 
coolest airmass of the autumn season yet. Blustery wnw breezes 
and highs of 55-60 will feet quite a bit cooler. Mo sunny skies 
save for some ocnl cirrus will be present today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
As of 4 AM Mon...With the aforementioned cool airmass building 
in, tonight may see the first freeze of the season for mainland 
ENC. One fly in the ointment would be some mid clouds streaming 
through overnight, which are now in the Missouri and Mid 
Mississippi Valley, and are fcst by the NAM/GFS to be over the 
Mid Atlantic including ENC late tonight. Current thinking is 
that these clouds will thin some, allowing for excellent 
radiational cooling. With the TD's in the 20s expected this 
afternoon, overnight lows should easily reach the upper 20s to 
lower 30s should the sky be mostly clear. Fz watch is in effect 
for all but Downeast Carteret and the OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 AM Mon...Dry weather is expected Tuesday through
Thursday with high pressure over the area, and temperatures 
initially below normal will moderate to above normal by 
Thursday. A cold front will chances for light rain Thursday 
night, and then much cooler temperatures for Friday and through
the weekend.

Tuesday and Wednesday...High pressure will be overhead Tuesday
morning before sliding offshore later in the day. After a cold
start temperatures should rebound into the low to mid 60s as low
level heights begin to increase. On Wednesday high pressure will
remain ridging into the area from offshore, and increasing low
level heights along with warm southerly flow will allow for
temps to reach the low to possibly mid 70s across the area.

Thursday and Thursday Night...A potent shortwave trough will
approach the Eastern Seaboard Thursday, with a strong cold front
extending southward from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast. High
pressure will be retreating through the day, and with the low
levels moistening, a few scattered showers will be possible
throughout the day. Despite this potential, temps will climb 
well above normal as low level heights continue to build, and 
highs are expected in the mid to upper 70s.

Clouds will continue to increase Thursday evening as the front
approaches, and quick shot of rain is anticipated for the area
overnight, with the best chances for rain likely across NE NC
and the Outer Banks. Temps will remain mild ahead of the front
but will drop quickly behind it as strong CAA moves in pushing
temps down into the 40s and low 50s by sunrise Friday.

Friday through Sunday...Cold high pressure will move in from the
northwest behind the cold front, and strong CAA will continue
through the day Friday and also into Saturday. Low level heights
crash behind the front, and temps will struggle to increase 
more than 5-10 degrees Friday. Expect good radiational cooling 
Friday night with the high centered over southern VA, and temps 
will drop into the low to mid 30s for most of the area away 
from the immediate coast, where temps will remain in the 40s. A
hard freeze will be possible with the best chances right now 
across the coastal plain.

On Saturday cold NE winds will continue and temps will remain
well below average with highs only reaching the mid to upper
50s. Another cold night is expected Saturday night, though lows
should remain above freezing inland. High pressure finally
pushes farther offshore Sunday, with east to southeast winds
developing, and highs will rebound into the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/... 
As of 1230 PM Mon...VFR mainly SKC through the taf pd. Ocnl sct
mid and high clouds may stream through from time to time 
through tonight. Winds will gust upwards of 20 kt through early 
afternoon following passage of a strong shortwave trough.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/... 
As of 245 AM Mon...VFR conditions are expected through most of 
the period with high pressure in control. A cold front will 
cross the region on Thursday night and could lead to a period of
sub-VFR conditions through early Friday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through tonight/...
As of 1230 PM Mon...Winds now prevailing NW 15 to 20 kt across
the inshore waters, with some occasional gusts to 25 kt still
possible very close to shore through the afternoon. SCAs have
ended for all waters save the coastal waters north of Ocracoke
Inlet, where some 6 ft seas remain possible mainly beyond 10 nm
offshore through the rest of the afternoon. 

Winds become light overnight as the surface high moves
overhead, with seas trending toward 2-4 ft.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 245 AM Mon...Winds Tuesday morning will remain NW at 10-15
kts, and then turn to the SW at 5-10 kts by late afternoon as
high pressure slides offshore. SW winds at 5-15 kts will 
continue Wednesday and through Thursday morning. By Thursday
afternoon, winds will increase to S 15-20 kts ahead of a cold 
front, and then sharply veer to the NW behind the front early
Friday morning to 15-25 kts.

Seas are expected to be mostly 2-3 ft through Thursday
afternoon, and then increase to 3-5 ft Thursday night. Seas
build even more on Friday behind the front to 5-7 ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 1 PM Mon...Minimum relative humidities around 25 to 30 
percent and gusty west to northwest winds have necessitated the
issuance of and Increased Fire Danger Statement this afternoon.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Freeze Watch from midnight EST tonight through Tuesday morning 
     for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>195-198-199.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/CB
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...TL/SGK/CB
MARINE...TL/SGK/CB
FIRE WEATHER...MHX