778 
FXUS63 KOAX 151724
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1124 AM CST Mon Nov 15 2021

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CST Mon Nov 15 2021

.Forecast Highlights:
- Near record heat expected Tuesday
- Powerful cold front Tuesday night
- Occasional breezy winds expected

Mild conditions this morning compared to the past few thanks to
significant cloud cover at 10000 feet. Temps are generally in the
low 40s as of 3AM/09Z and not more than 10-15 degrees removed from
the afternoon's seasonal high temperatures. 

A stationary front continues to slope across the area. 08Z surface
analysis has front draped from Platte, SD through the Columbus, NE
and Beatrice areas. Deterministic guidance is well short of 
consensus on extent of eastern progression of the front today and
varies pretty significantly from run to run. Its eventual 
whereabouts will affect afternoon temperatures. Forecast highs 
today have a much greater level of uncertainty along and east of 
the Missouri River compared to areas west of there. 

Consider:
50% of ensemble members are within a degree of 69F for Lincoln's
high temperature today. The same (but lower) 2 degree spread is
noted at DSM. Omaha's 25th to 75th percentile spread is double 
that.

Regardless, expect a pleasant day across the area with partly
cloudy skies and a warming wind with a regular westerly component.
Highs may range from the upper 50s to near 60 in Shelby County
Iowa to low 70s in Lancaster, Gage, Saline, and Jefferson Counties
in Nebraska. Omaha's record of 75F in 2001 seems safe (76 LNK / 
78 OFK). But record highs are threatened across the western 
CONUS. 

The thermal ridge slides east quickly in the progressive flow on 
Tuesday ahead of a low traversing our northern international 
border. Its passage here will bring one of the last "warm" days of
2021. Quicker southerly winds of 10-20mph will help drive temps 
another step higher: 20-25 degrees above seasonal norms. 

Recently set record highs may fall Tuesday:
Omaha 73F - 2016 
Norfolk 76F - 2016
Lincoln 80F - 2016

A cold front tied to that powerful low working along the Canadian
border sweeps through on Tuesday night, bringing another round of
shutter shaking winds and strong cold air advection. Wednesday's 
highs will be set just after midnight with afternoon temps demoted
to the 40s. The winds will make sure it doesn't feel like 40s. 

The front should pass through without producing any showers,
though a few ensemble members and even the deterministic EC now
suggest the possibility. I won't bite yet. Humidity in the low 
levels looks meager in this neck of the woods, but I do think the 
showers will eventually develop as the front progresses into 
Missouri. 

After the warmth of the next 48 hours, temps will fluctuate 
within a few degrees of seasonal averages. Through it all, the
7-day will remain dry. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1121 AM CST Mon Nov 15 2021

VFR criteria to prevail for the TAF period. A wind shift is
forecast to occur late this afternoon. By 01Z, winds should be
predominately southerly. 

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN 
AVIATION...Fajman