577 
FXUS63 KICT 151137
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
537 AM CST Mon Nov 15 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night) 
Issued at 255 AM CST Mon Nov 15 2021

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THE NEXT 7 DAYS:

* Well above normal temperatures today-Tuesday, with possible near 
  record highs today at Russell and Salina.

* Elevated grassland fire danger Tuesday, Wednesday, and possibly 
  again Friday.

* No major storm systems on the horizon.

Broad upper ridging approaching from the west in concert with 
strengthening south to southwest low-level flow will support well 
above normal temperatures today and Tuesday. Near record highs are 
possible today at Russell (77 in 1952) and Salina (78 in 1952), 
where west/southwesterly flow and a dry airmass should support 
forecast highs in the mid-upper 70s. 

Tuesday temperatures should be a few degrees warmer, especially over 
eastern Kansas, due to 850mb temperatures 3-5 degrees warmer than 
today. However, record highs are in the 80s, and will not be in 
jeopardy. 

Another aspect of Tuesday will be the stout/gusty south winds, as a 
strong cold front approaches from the northwest. Thinking winds will 
be sustained 20-25 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph. The strong cold 
front will surge south across the area Tuesday night through 
Wednesday morning. Strong cold advection and associated pressure 
rises will support stout/gusty north winds in the cold front's 
wake...sustained 20-30 mph with gusts 35-40 mph. 

Additionally, low-level moistening ahead of the front and just 
behind the front should support patchy drizzle and/or areas of light 
rain generally east of the KS Turnpike Tuesday night through 
Wednesday morning. Thinking the NAM over-moistens the boundary 
layer, while the RAP and GFS probably aren't moist enough. 
Regardless, any rainfall/drizzle amounts will be light.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) 
Issued at 255 AM CST Mon Nov 15 2021

For Wednesday-Thursday, much colder air will filter south in wake of 
the front, with forecast highs in the upper 40s and 50s.

Model consensus supports a modest warm-up through the 50s to low 60s 
by Saturday, as upper ridging progresses over Mid-America. Another 
modest cool down looks probable by Sunday-Monday as another 
shortwave and associated cold front progress over the region, with 
forecast highs cooling into the 40s-50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 526 AM CST Mon Nov 15 2021

Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through
the next 24 hours.

Lee troughing is expected to continue to deepen today and tonight
and will allow south and southwest winds to overspread the area.
Outside of some scattered high clouds, VFR conditions will remain
in place through this TAF period. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 AM CST Mon Nov 15 2021

Stout/gusty south winds Tuesday and north winds Wednesday will 
support very high grassland fire danger for warm season 
grasses/pastures that are at least 90-100 percent cured. Elevated 
fire danger may also prevail Friday as south winds increase again. 
In all instances, marginal combination of wind, temperature, and 
humidity will prevent critical/red flag conditions. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    73  45  73  46 /   0   0   0  10 
Hutchinson      75  45  73  43 /   0   0   0  10 
Newton          72  46  71  45 /   0   0   0  10 
ElDorado        71  46  73  46 /   0   0   0  10 
Winfield-KWLD   72  46  75  48 /   0   0   0  10 
Russell         76  45  76  40 /   0   0   0   0 
Great Bend      76  45  74  40 /   0   0   0   0 
Salina          76  45  74  43 /   0   0   0   0 
McPherson       74  44  72  43 /   0   0   0  10 
Coffeyville     70  47  75  53 /   0   0  10  20 
Chanute         69  46  74  49 /   0   0  10  20 
Iola            68  46  73  48 /   0   0  10  20 
Parsons-KPPF    69  47  74  51 /   0   0  10  20 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...ADK