209 
FXUS64 KLCH 150215
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
815 PM CST Sun Nov 14 2021

.UPDATE...
High pressure remains centered over southern Louisiana this
evening resulting in light and variable winds. Higher dewpoints
overnight will keep temperatures from falling as much as last
night with lows reaching the upper 40s to lower 50s. The higher
low level moisture may result in some patchy fog development during
the predawn hours Monday. The inherited forecast already depicts 
this and no changes were required this evening.

Jones

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 532 PM CST Sun Nov 14 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...
00Z 15NOV2021 TAFs

AVIATION...
VFR conditions continue with SKC and light southwesterly winds. 
Some light patchy fog is expected tomorrow morning due to higher 
dewpoints. Placed TEMPOs in for KBPT&KLCH where model guidance 
hint at higher chances for development. 
Stigger/87

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 313 PM CST Sun Nov 14 2021/ 

SYNOPSIS...
Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows a trough over the eastern
CONUS downstream of a ridge over the W coast. Between these
systems, northwesterly flow is maintaining dry conditions acrs the
area. Meanwhile, sfc high pres and low level ridging are keeping
pleasant conditions over the region, with mostly sunny skies,
light southwesterly winds and temperatures in the lower 70s. 

Dry weather is expected to persist through the early part of the
week, with another front bringing a few showers to the area
Thursday.

24

SHORT TERM...[Tonight through Tuesday night]
Northwesterly flow aloft will prevail through Monday night before
transitioning more zonal on Tuesday. The sfc high will migrate
east through the early part of the week, allowing for onshore flow
that will bring about a warming trend. A gradual increase in low 
level moisture will accompany the southerly winds, but will not be
sufficient for precip production, thus rain chcs will be minimal 
through Tuesday night. However, with light winds and dewpoint 
depressions narrowing to around 2 degrees or less, some patchy fog
cannot be ruled out either tonight or Monday night, but the 
likelihood of more widespread or dense fog appears low at this 
time.

As for temperatures, another night of near normal lows is 
expected tonight, with temperatures falling to the upper 
40s/around 50 acrs the northern parts of the CWA as well as the 
Acadiana region, and the lower 50s acrs lower SE TX/SW LA. By 
Tuesday morning, lows will be between 5 and 10 degrees warmer 
than Monday morning. Meanwhile, daytime highs Monday and Tuesday 
are expected to be in the middle to upper 70s. The ongoing warm 
advection pattern will moderate temperatures further by Tuesday 
night/Wednesday morning with lows only falling to around 60 
degrees in the coolest spots, with lower 60s elsewhere.

24

LONG TERM...[Wednesday through Sunday]
Heading into mid week, the region will continue to reside within a 
WAA regime amid southerly flow between a departing low to mid level 
ridge off the SE US coast and an approaching upper trof pushing east 
of the Rockies. Well above normal temperatures are expected on WED, 
with areawide highs climbing to around 80 underneath a mix of clouds 
and sun. The upper trof will continue EWD across the Plains and into 
the Mid/Upper MS River Valley WED night into THU morning, driving a 
cold front through the forecast area. Global models depict limited 
MSTR and generally weak forcing for ascent, so a low to mid range 
chance of showers is expected. Cooler and drier air will begin to 
filter in behind the front, with rains tapering off and clouds 
eroding gradually over the course of day on THU. Mostly clear and 
dry conditions are expected by THU night with low to mid level 
ridging nosing in from the west and SFC high pressure settling into 
MO/AR. Light N/NE flow to the south of the SFC high will inhibit 
ideal radiational cooling, with temperatures FRI morning in the 
lower 40s north to upper 40s south. 

Ridging aloft and at the SFC will continue to dominate on FRI, with 
daytime highs struggling to reach the mid 60s, and one last cool 
night/morning of readings in the 40s is expected FRI night into SAT 
morning. A warming trend is expected thereafter as the ridging at the 
SFC and aloft pushes off to the east, though divergence in global 
models increases late in the weekend and into early next week with 
the timing of the next CDFNT. 

13

MARINE...
High pres acrs the area will keep light and somewhat vrbl winds 
over the waters through early Monday. Onshore flow will become 
better established during the day Monday as the sfc high slides 
east of the area. Moderate onshore flow will persist until passage
of a cold front early Thursday. Some sctd showers are expected to
develop Wednesday night ahead of the front, and continue into Thursday
night before drier air spreads south into the region. The front 
will also usher a moderate to strong offshore flow acrs the 
coastal waters for the latter part of the week, with a brief 
period of exercise caution or advisory conditions possible.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  48  76  55  79 /   0   0   0   0 
LCH  53  77  59  78 /   0   0   0   0 
LFT  51  76  56  78 /   0   0   0   0 
BPT  54  78  60  79 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$