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FXUS63 KMPX 091657
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1057 AM CST Tue Nov 9 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CST Tue Nov 9 2021

Surface high currently centered near Sioux Falls will slide eastward
across southern MN today. This will bring a gradual backing of winds
to southerly by this afternoon, allowing temperatures to stay about
8-10 degrees above normal. Meanwhile clouds will gradually clear 
from north to south through the day, providing an overall pleasant 
day for early/mid November.

The next big weather maker will move into the area Wednesday and
Wednesday night as a widespread rain event, followed by cooler and
blustery conditions Thursday and Friday. Most indications are that
rainfall amounts of a quarter to half inch are likely through Weds
night, with amounts approaching an inch possible particularly across
western Wisconsin. A cold front will make quick progress across the 
area Wednesday evening and Wednesday night, bringing a quick end to 
the rain from west to east. 

Gusty northwest winds behind this system will bring about a 10 
degree drop in temperatures on Thursday (highs in the 40s) and 
another 10 degree drop on Friday (highs in the 30s). This degree of
cold air advection will provide a favorable setup for scattered rain
and snow showers Thursday night into Friday when a second round of
moisture moves in on the back side of the slowly departing storm
system. There could even be a little bit of shallow instability given
the strength of the CAA which could allow for a few convectively-
driven heavier snow showers. If this occurs a few spots could see up 
to an inch of snow Thursday night into Friday, especially over 
western Minnesota. However, a dusting to a half inch seems the most 
likely outcome for most areas, particularly given the warm antecedent
ground temperatures.

This active wintry pattern looks to possibly continue into the 
weekend with a potential clipper system Saturday night or Sunday. As
is typically the case with such systems models are really struggling
with the strength and location of this upper wave and exactly how 
much snow, if any, it could mean for our area. This degree of 
uncertainty is likely to continue for a few more days until the 
midweek system plays out and the models can get a better grasp on the
upper wave pattern behind it. So in the meantime, don't get too 
excited over any particular model run until at least Thursday or so
because the next run is very likely to change. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1055 AM CST Tue Nov 9 2021

VFR conditions through tonight with winds shifting to the southeast.
After 12z, cigs begin to lower in western Mn, with SCT015-020 before
18z at KRWF/KAXN. Otherwise, VFR with southeast winds increasing to 
10-15 kts in the west. steadier -RA will hold off until after 18z but
can't rule out a few light showers before 18z in western Mn. 

KMSP...

Only additional concerns is timing of -RA at the airport and when
MVFR develop. Kept is simple with deteriorating conditions between
21-23Z Wednesday afternoon. 

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Wed night...IFR & MVFR -RA. Wind SE 15G25 kts. 
Thu...MVFR likely & IFR/-RA possible. -SN poss late. Wind NW 15G25 kts.
Fri...MVFR/-SHRA/-SHSN likely with IFR possible. Wind NW at 20G30 kts

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...JLT