National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDFFC
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDFFC
Product Timestamp: 2021-11-07 23:20 UTC
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077 FXUS62 KFFC 072320 AAA AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 620 PM EST Sun Nov 7 2021 ...00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/... A fairly benign and dry period of weather expected to start the work week. An upper level ridge and surface high will build into the forecast area through the short term periods. Clear skies will persist through Tuesday morning. Winds will generally be light at 5mph or less. Overnight lows will trend to near or just above normal each morning with warmer than normal high temperatures expected by tomorrow afternoon. Patchy frost is expected, mainly in the northeast Georgia mountain counties tomorrow morning, however due to the lack of coverage expected will hold off on any frost/freeze headlines at this point. Atwell && .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/... The beginning of the forecast period is dry and unseasonably warm thanks to high pressure. By Wednesday, the ridge begins to erode as a broad longwave trough traverses the Plains and into the Great Lakes Region. Timing of the cold frontal passage associated with the parent low and moisture amounts still lack consensus amongst global models at this time. While timing and precipitation amounts remain uncertain, there is increasing confidence that the forecast area will see the chance on rain ramp up by Thursday evening. Chance of precipitation is likely Thursday evening through Friday morning with a high end chance of precipitation in the forecast through Friday evening. For now, thunder remains omitted from the forecast, but models have hinted at a slight increase in instability parameters Thursday evening and Friday. Additional uncertainty in the long term forecast comes after the FroPa. While the global guidance suggests a deepening of the trough over the eastern CONUS, there is divergence amongst model solutions over the amplitude and there may be the potential for some moisture to linger behind the front. Any precipitation after the FroPa will need to be monitored Saturday night into Sunday morning, primarily in the higher elevations of North Georgia, as temperatures trend below freezing. This situation will be monitored moving forward as models get a better handle on the system. KAL && .AVIATION... 00Z Update... VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Northwest to north winds 4-8kt will become light, 4kt or less, and somewhat variable in direction overnight before increasing to 4-6kt from the north northeast by 14-15Z. Winds will return to the northwest after 18-20Z. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... High. 20 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 40 71 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 41 71 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 36 69 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 37 70 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 42 73 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 42 71 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 39 72 41 76 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 40 71 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 38 72 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 42 69 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Atwell LONG TERM....KAL AVIATION...20