085 
FXUS63 KAPX 072037
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
337 PM EST Sun Nov 7 2021

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 335 PM EST Sun Nov 7 2021

...Above normal temperatures continue...

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: 

Elongated mid/upper level ridge axis, extending from the southern 
Plains north into the western Great Lakes, continues to expand into 
our area this afternoon. Combination of attendant deep layer 
subsidence and southwest winds on the backside of broad southeast 
Conus centered high pressure continues to funnel unseasonably warm 
air north into the northern Great Lakes...with current temperatures 
running well up into the 50s and lower 60s (about 15 or so degrees 
above normal).

Not much change at all heading through tonight as upper level 
ridging centers itself directly overhead, all-the-while southeast 
displaced surface high remains essentially stationary. Weak shortwave 
trough rotating well to our northwest across the Prairie lands of 
southern Canada tonight attempts to drag a weak and shallow cool 
front into the northwest Great Lakes by Monday morning. The result 
is sustained mild southwest flow directed right into the region, 
keeping temperatures running several degrees above normal through at 
least Monday. 

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:

Only focus remains on cloud and temperature trends.

Details:

Another fairly mild overnight expected as those southwest winds 
continue. Nose of upper level jet likely to bring some high/mid level 
clouds across the area into this evening, with clouds likely to 
rotate north with time overnight. Some hints of a lower overcast 
spreading into eastern upper toward morning, although what should be 
a fairly well mixed lower level environment may prevent this. As for 
those temperatures, expect lows tonight to only fall into the lower 
and middle 40s for most, with perhaps some upper 30s in our typical 
colder locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 PM EST Sun Nov 7 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal attm...

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Monday morning...will look for positively tilted upper level ridge 
over the area/southern Great Lakes...with a weak niblet of energy 
passing through to our north. This should be enough to instigate 
clouds, at the very least...and linger moisture in the area as a 
second niblet scoots into the region from the north Tuesday into 
Tuesday night. Ridging returns for Wednesday across the Great 
Lakes...as a strong upper level jet moving onshore in the Pacific 
Northwest deepens troughing across the southern Plains. 


Primary Forecast Concerns: Precip chances through the period, 
particularly Tuesday...

Monday's weak shortwave passing by to the north doesn't appear 
terribly impressive attm. Worth noting that some of the typical 
guidance that likes to have more boundary level moisture has some 
signals for low-level cloudiness and/or drizzle/light rain in 
soundings. Though other guidance-derived soundings don't seem quite 
as moisture-happy...wouldn't be out of the question to at least see 
some low clouds sink in through the day Monday, given some higher RH 
values in the 925-850mb layer draping through the area through the 
day along the weak front associated with this niblet of energy. Not 
sure how well this layer will be able to produce precipitation, as 
it may end up rather shallow...and otherwise will be bridged by 
surface high pressure across the Appalachians...and surface high 
pressure across the northern Plains...but we'll see. Do have non-
zero pops in there for now.

The better potential for precipitation in the short term appears to 
be Tuesday...when it appears we should be closer to some better 
dynamics from aloft (as we'll be nearer to the right entrance region 
of an upper level jet moving through the flow)...though this will 
ultimately depend on how far south the front sags through the 
period...as it may end up stalling out far enough south that it may 
not impact us. Even so...precip chances do exist, mainly in the form 
of rain with the mild/above normal temperatures in place...and will 
look for more of a nuisance-type impact as opposed to anything 
major. There is still some uncertainty in the details, but for now 
it doesn't look terribly impressive (particularly when compared with 
the system at the start of the extended).

Otherwise...mild temperatures should remain in place for the short 
term...despite the weak cold front passing through Monday night into 
Tuesday and dropping things down a few degrees. (Normal highs for 
this time of year are in the mid 40s...but even behind the "cold" 
front, it appears that a large portion of the area will stay either 
around or in the lower 50s.) With high pressure briefly moving in 
Tuesday night...will look for clearing skies and light winds to lead 
to a chilly night with temps near freezing or colder for many 
locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 335 PM EST Sun Nov 7 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Gusty winds Wednesday night - Friday

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: 

The weather turns a touch more active going into the long term...as 
a strong upper level jet moving into the Pacific Northwest deepens 
troughing across the central Plains. This should result in 
development of a strong surface system to our west Wednesday into 
Thursday. Guidance is still not in total agreement on the exact 
details...but it does look like we should enter a period of 
breezy/gusty and likely rainy conditions long about Thursday(ish). 
May be a "Gales of November" type day on the lakes...so will have to 
keep a reasonably close eye on this going forward. Beyond this...it 
appears that we switch over to a cooler pattern as troughing largely 
tries to hang out over us going into the weekend. This could result 
in lake effect chances, though lake surface temps have dropped some 
over the last week. Otherwise...any niblets passing through may 
instigate precip as well. With temperatures trending below normal 
for the weekend into the start of next week...will have to keep an 
eye out for snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM EST Sun Nov 7 2021

Other than perhaps a brief period of low level wind shear later
tonight at both KTVC and KMBL, no significant aviation concerns
expected with just some passing high and mid level clouds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 335 PM EST Sun Nov 7 2021

Southwest winds will continue across the region through Monday on 
the north side of high pressure centered to our southeast across the 
TN Valley. While the majority of time over the next couple of days 
should feature generally lighter winds, there is a window this 
evening into Monday morning with the potential for gusts to reach 
small craft criteria, primarily on Lake Michigan. Passage of a weak 
cold front will swing our winds around to northerly Monday night and 
Tuesday, with current trends supporting sub-advisory winds and 
waves.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Monday 
     for LMZ323-341-342.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 AM EST Monday for LMZ344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...MB
MARINE...MB