406 
FXUS62 KGSP 071726
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1226 PM EST Sun Nov 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warming high pressure will continue across the region 
through the middle of the week. A significant storm system is then 
expected to bring a return of unsettled weather late in the week. 
Much cooler temperatures are expected to arrive next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1225 PM EST: An axis of broad high pressure will slowly build 
into the area today behind the departing coastal low drifting 
further offshore. This will result in clearing skies, lighter winds 
and a nice rebound in temps. Still expect some low-end gusts thru 
the middle of the afternoon, especially across the Piedmont, as we 
mix some NELY flow between the approaching high and departing low. 
Gusty ridge top winds in the mountains are also expected. But 
overall, it should be a nice day, with highs near normal.

Tonight, high pressure will continue to build in, and should make
for good radiational cooling conditions. With that said, the air
mass building in from the west is moderating, and the increasing
thicknesses result in min temps mainly in the upper 30s to lower 40s
across the Piedmont where the frost/freeze program hasn't been shut
off for the season. I still think there will be at least patchy
frost across these areas, in the usual coolest spots. But urban
areas, the thermal belt off the escarpment, and near lakes look
to be too warm at this time. So will plan to continue to mention
frost in the HWO, but punt any Frost Advisory to the day shift.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 am Sunday: Dry, deep layer ridging will dominate the 
pattern over the much of the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic through 
much of the short term...before height falls passing north of our 
forecast area flatten the upper ridge late in the period. This 
should result in a return to more in the way of typical, dry 
mid-autumn weather with warm days (actually around 5 degrees above  
climo) and cool nights, with a dry air mass and ideal radiational 
cooling conditions supporting 30 degree diurnal temp ranges. Min 
temps are forecast to fall a degree or two below climo both Mon and 
Tue night, but this should preclude any frost concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 255 am Sunday: The warm and dry weather of the short term will 
extend into the early part of the long term, with at least one more 
day of above-normal temperatures expected Wed. The remainder of the 
forecast period continues to look increasingly active as a major 
trough emerges from the central Conus late in the week. While the 
global models agree in the evolution of the larger scale pattern, 
the devil is in the synoptic and mesoscale details, and the models 
remain a bit all over the place in this regard, with substantial 
differences in the timing, location, and intensity of key features. 
Based upon a consensus of the primary guidance sources, we will 
continue to ramp up PoPs beginning late Thursday, peaking in the 
high chance range Thu night and Fri before slowly drawing them down 
through the end of the period (although at least slight chances are 
carried through Saturday). The picture regarding a potential for 
severe weather and/or heavy rainfall remains about as clear as mud 
at this juncture, but considering the dynamic nature of the pattern, 
this will remain of some concern. Otherwise, increasing clouds and 
moisture will tighten up the diurnal temperatures ranges during the 
extended, with max temps forecast near to a bit below normal through 
the period, while min temps should generally be above climo.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions expected thru the period,
except for patchy mountain valley fog again tonight. Cirrus 
associated with the coastal low pressure will move east of the area 
today. Gusty northerly winds associated with the low will diminish 
through the afternoon as well. Light northerly wind expected this 
evening and overnight with some increase in speed Monday. SKC 
expected overnight and Monday.

Outlook: No significant flight restrictions are anticipated through 
at Wednesday with high pressure over the area. However, morning 
mountain valley fog will be possible. A cold front will bring the 
chance of precipitation and associated restrictions Thursday and 
Friday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/RWH
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...RWH