980 
FXUS64 KMEG 071611
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1011 AM CST Sun Nov 7 2021

.UPDATE...

10 AM Update

No major updates were made to the previous forecast. Not to sound
like a broken record but today will be another gorgeous fall day.
Plenty of sunshine with temperatures warming into the upper 60s 
can be expected. 

SMW


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 AM CST Sun Nov 7 2021/ 

Northwesterly flow aloft has developed across the Mid-South as a 
shortwave ridge builds into the region from the southwest. 
Geopotential heights will build through the weekend as the cyclone
off the Carolina coast pulls off to the east. The surface ridge 
axis remains entrenched over the CWA, extending from the lower MS 
Valley into the Northeast. This will maintain light winds 
overnight, resulting in areas fog overnight. This fog has been 
locally dense and a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for some 
areas. This advisory may need to be expanded over time based on 
visibility trends. Otherwise, benign weather conditions are 
anticipated in the short term. 

Temperatures will continue a warming trend today, with afternoon 
temperatures warming into the mid 60s. We should see a bit more
sun and winds will remain light. Though we'll start out on the 
chilly side again Monday morning, afternoon temperatures will be 
even warmer as the ridge peaks with 500 mb heights generally at or
above the 97th percentile of climatology. Expect highs near 70F. 
A shortwave trough will pass to our north on Tuesday, flattening
the the ridge into more of a more quasi-zonal pattern but a dearth
of moisture will preclude rain chances with this system. Cloud 
cover should increase, but that looks to be about it.

A potent trough will develop over the western CONUS late Tuesday, 
deepening through the midweek period as a strong jet digs from the
Pacific Northwest into the Central Rockies. Surface pressure 
falls in the Plains will result in increasing southerly winds and 
poleward moisture flux from the Gulf of Mexico. Generally dry 
weather is anticipated through Wednesday, but rain chances 
increase Thursday and Thursday night as a couple shortwaves 
rotate through the trough and consolidate into a deep, closed low 
over the Great Lakes. PoPs will be primarily linked to the 
surface front tied to an occluded low somewhere in the
neighborhood of Wisconsin. This scenario should favor a a cold 
front moving through the Mid-South Thursday afternoon and evening
and the latest global ensembles are in pretty fair agreement with
this timing. The 00z deterministic ECMWF/GFS may be just a tad 
quick with this system, but neither are too far off.

Instability still appears limited with this system as only the 
GEPS indicates any reasonable potential for CAPE reaching 500 
J/kg. A few rumbles of thunder are possible so a slight chance of
thunderstorms was included along/ahead of the cold front. 
Rainfall shouldn't be a big concern with average QPF generally 
less than 1 inch. Drier air will advect into the Mid-South from
west to east Friday with a few showers continuing into the 
afternoon as the upper-level trough swings across the area, mainly
east of the MS River. Notably cooler conditions are anticipated 
this weekend in the wake of the cold front. Temperatures did 
indeed come in slightly cooler for Saturday with high temperatures
near 50 degrees throughout the Mid-South. Some guidance even 
suggests much of the area could remain in the 40s on Saturday. 
Early morning temperatures will be quite chilly as well. The CIPS 
analogs indicate a relatively high probability for a freeze into
portions of north MS and NBM temperatures are in the same
ballpark. 

MJ

&&

.AVIATION... 
/12Z TAFs/

VFR conditions and light winds are expected through the period.
Patchy early morning fog will occur mainly near river valleys and
lakes.

SWC


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$