503 
FXUS63 KAPX 071451
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
951 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021

Mild and dry November day expected across the Northwoods as mid 
level ridging builds overhead and southwest winds continue on the 
backside of Tennessee Valley centered surface high pressure. Nose of 
upper level jet will likely bring some increasing high and mid level 
clouds, which may throttle back just a bit on temperatures. Still, 
simple magnitude of expanding mild airmass supports highs in the 
upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 205 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Weak ridging expected to be positioned 
across the nation's midsection today with mid-upper level heights 
slowly rising over northern Michigan. Surface high pressure to 
remain anchored across the Tennessee Valley into the Appalachians 
through at least tonight. This will continue to promote low-level 
warm air advection locally with another day of well-above normal 
temperatures and little in the way of sensible weather. 

Primary Forecast Concerns: Just how warm daytime temperatures will 
climb.

Broad sub-tropical ridging continues to expand north across the 
Great Lakes late this weekend with any semblance of cold air 
bottled well our north across Canada. Southwesterly low-level flow 
will continue in earnest today on the north side of aformentioned 
southeast centered surface high pressure...only helping to continue 
to warm temperatures as H8 temperatures surge to the low teens 
across the majority of the area this afternoon. While we certainly 
won't be able to mix to this level (which would support sfc temps in 
the low 70s), still expecting afternoon highs to push well into the 
50s and lower 60s across the area -- a solid 10 to 15 degrees above 
early November normals that range through the mid-40s. 

Suppose the only possible blemish to an otherwise tranquil forecast 
would be cloud cover. Current trends largely support partly to 
mostly sunny skies today, but could envision some thicker clouds 
rolling across parts of northwest lower and eastern upper. Depending 
on timing/coverage/longevity of these clouds could throw a bit of 
wrench into high temps this afternoon across some areas, but at this 
point, it's just something that'll need to be monitored as the day 
progresses. 

Mainly clear to partly cloud skies anticipated tonight. South-
southwest winds should prevent much in the way of extreme 
radiational cooling with lows expected to bottom out in the upper 
30s across the coolest spots to the mid 40s at the shorelines of the 
big waters.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 205 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Northern Michigan will be between an area of high pressure over the 
southeastern CONUS and another weaker one over the northern Great 
Plains. A weak area of low pressure over Ontario/Quebec with an 
associated east/west oriented cold front will be over the Great 
Lakes. This cold front will be fairly moisture starved and shallow, 
but could produce some drizzle and light rain showers Monday night 
into Tuesday as a weak surface wave rides up along the front before 
finally departing to the south and east of the forecast area Tuesday 
evening. Clouds will also be on the increase late Monday ahead of 
the approaching front bringing partly cloudy skies to mostly 
cloudy/overcast with decreasing clouds late Tuesday as the front 
departs the area and the high pressure over the Great Plains moves 
to the Great Lakes and builds overhead.

Winds will be southwest at the beginning of the period and veer to 
more northwest to north by Monday evening as said cold front moves 
into northern Michigan. Winds will remain northwest to north 
throughout the remainder of this forecast period as the center of 
the high pressure moving in remains just to our west.

Temperatures Monday afternoon will reach into the upper 50s to 
possibly the low 60s, as Tuesday only reaches into the low to mid 
50s behind the departing cold front with cooler air from the north 
filtering in.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 205 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...The long term period will begin with 
high pressure and drier air overhead. Models are showing a more 
progressive pattern beginning to impact the Great Lakes region mid 
to late work week with the possibility of a developing storm system 
from the central Great Plains moving in and then colder air 
filtering in it's wake and possibly developing some lake effect snow 
for next weekend. Models seem to be fairly consistent on this 
occurring, but will continue to monitor each day and make any changes 
deemed necessary. Highs are forecast to be above normal for this 
time of the year...before reaching back to normal to below normal by 
the end of the work week and into the next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 612 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021

Aside from some early morning fog at MBL, VFR expected to prevail
with tranquil sensible weather conditions anticipated across 
northern Michigan through the TAF period as higher pressure 
continues to build into the region. South-southwest winds will 
continue to be the rule, occasionally breezy at times --
especially this evening into tonight.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 AM EST Sun Nov 7 2021

Southwest winds will continue to dominate across the region today 
through Monday on the north side of high pressure centered to our 
southeast across the TN Valley. While the majority of time over the 
next couple of days should feature generally lighter winds, there is 
a window this evening into Monday morning with the potential for 
gusts to reach small craft criteria, primarily on Lake Michigan.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Monday 
     for LMZ323-341-342.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EST 
     Monday for LMZ344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MB
NEAR TERM...MG
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...MG
MARINE...MG