374 
FXUS65 KABQ 071110
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
410 AM MST Sun Nov 7 2021

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions are expected to prevail over most of northern and 
central New Mexico through the next 24 hours. Similar to Saturday 
morning, a few low stratus clouds may develop in southeastern parts 
of the state toward dawn, but should mostly stay out of the 
Albuquerque forecast area and away from KROW and KCVN. Breezes will 
be a bit stronger this afternoon with gusts of 25 to 30 kt being 
common in east central to northeastern New Mexico. 

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...239 AM MST Sun Nov 7 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
Another splendid day is on tap for northern and central New Mexico, 
although winds will be a little stronger compared to Saturday. High
temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal, with many areas
approaching or exceeding daily record highs. Readings may be a tick
lower for Monday as a very weak disturbance passes across the state,
but another round of low to mid 80s will be possible in the east. A 
stronger system will pass just north of New Mexico for Tuesday night
through Wednesday. The threat for precipitation looks bleak, with a 
few rain and snow showers possible over the northern mountains. The 
bigger story will be the windy conditions as a cold front moves west
to east across the state. The strongest winds will be along the high
terrain, eastern slopes and adjacent highlands. Afternoon highs are 
forecast to be closer to seasonal averages across the northwest for 
Wednesday, then areawide for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
The upper level ridge will begin to slowly loosen its grip over NM 
today and into Monday as southwesterly flow aloft increases and the 
ridge axis is shunted farther east. While this will lead to lowering 
pressure heights over NM, the 500 mb height fields will still consist
of anomalously high values (1 to 2 standard deviations above 
climatology), and this will keep the above average warmth persisting.
Many locations will once again reach within a few degrees of daily 
record highs this afternoon. In addition, breezes may be slightly 
stronger this afternoon along and east of the central mountain chain 
due to a deeper lee-side surface low and well-mixed boundary layer. 
Some mid to high clouds may begin to approach western zones by the 
evening, but overall mostly sunny skies are expected today.

A swath of cirrus clouds will spread into NM on Monday as 
southwesterly flow increases. The additional cloud cover and 
lowering of heights by a couple decameters will drop high 
temperatures Monday afternoon by a degree or two, but readings will 
still be well above average with a few locations still close to 
daily records. At the surface the aforementioned lee-side surface 
low will be filling in over northeast NM as a front encroaches 
toward that corner of the state. This could limit breezes in eastern 
Colfax and Union counties, but remaining eastern zones will still 
observe breezy conditions in the afternoon. 52

LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A very low amplitude shortwave will traverse the state Monday night
with the best moisture and upr level dynamics well north of NM. That
said, it will send a backdoor front through the eastern plains with
the NAM12/Canadian offering the quicker solutions and the GFS/ECWMF 
about 3-6 hours slower. The only influence this boundary should have 
is cooler high temperatures in its wake for Tuesday, especially over
the northeast plains. 

Meanwhile, broad cyclonic flow persists across the northern/eastern 
Pacific with a slug of deep moisture as well as a more pronounced 
shortwave moving into the PacNW/northern CA on Monday. Deterministic 
models appear to be in better alignment with how this disturbance is 
expected to traverse the Rocky Mountains Tuesday through Wednesday. 
Current timing has the Pacific front pushing across the CWA Tuesday 
night. A strong jet aloft will also impact the area during this time,
with the GFS20 depicting 60kt 700hPa speeds along/east of the Sangre
de Cristos, expanding southward to include areas as far south as the
Sacramento Mts by mid-Wednesday morning. Opted to enhance winds well
above NBM guidance as it typically handles these situations poorly. 
In fact, model cross sections suggest mountain wave activity may be 
possible, and this could necessitate the need for wind highlights as 
the event draws closer. Upr level wind speeds relax by Wed afternoon,
and this will likely limit the potential severity across the eastern
plains. A change in forecast timing will have an impact on this risk,
so it should be monitored closely. As for precipitation, all of the 
deterministic guidance keep the majority of the moisture and forcing
north of the CWA, and thus producing no QPF. With that said, a minor
shift southward with the system's trajectory may result in a better 
opportunity across the northern mts. Ensemble guidance continues to 
reflect this possibility, but opted to knock down NBM PoPs back down
into the slight chance category.

There is better agreement for the late work week period as the state
will be under dry northwest flow with afternoon breeziness. This will
continue to usher in cooler air, keeping high temps near mid-November
averages. As the upper level trough slowly shifts eastward, this will
allow heights to increase as a ridge builds across the southwest U.S.
As a result, readings will creep higher each day during the upcoming
weekend. DPorter

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As we finish up the weekend and start the next week with continued 
above average, and even near-record warmth, very low afternoon 
humidity can also be expected along with breezy to locally windy 
conditions over many eastern zones. Winds will be strongest near and 
just north of the Interstate 40 corridor of eastern NM where spotty 
critical fire weather conditions are expected for a couple hours 
late today and again on Monday afternoon. Temperatures will still be 
well above average going into Tuesday, but readings will have cooled 
a few, if not several degrees, especially in eastern zones where a 
surface front will have made some impact. Some breeziness is still 
possible in northern zones Tuesday, but the cooler temperatures 
should give a slight boost to humidity. Temperatures cool more 
significantly into Wednesday when the jet stream will buckle and 
turn more northwesterly, drawing much stronger winds into the state. 
The cooling temperatures and meager rises in humidity on Wednesday 
will keep conditions from reaching traditional critical fire weather 
thresholds, but nonetheless the strong winds could prove hazardous, 
especially for any prescribed burning. Any precipitation will be 
scant, offering minimal fuel moisture. A cooler, brisk day is then 
expected on Thursday as stiff northwest flow continues to drop 
temperatures (even below average for a few locations). This strong 
northwest flow will gradually relax into Friday and the weekend with 
temperatures climbing their way back above normal by next Sunday. 52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$