368 
FXUS63 KFGF 070915
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
315 AM CST Sun Nov 7 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Sun Nov 7 2021

Temperatures and rain chances across our southern counties on
Monday will be the main challenges for the period.

Southwesterly flow aloft will continue into the start of the week.
A shortwave moving through Saskatchewan and Manitoba today will
help push a cold frontal boundary through. Some of the high res
models have some indication of rain developing near the front
later today, however, all the moisture is in the mid levels and
solutions that have any QPF reaching the ground are few and far
between. Think that most of the activity will be virga and clouds,
and along with the cool air advection kicking in should keep 
highs today a bit cooler in the low 50s in our northern tier.
Further south, there should be enough warming ahead of the frontal
passage to still get into the low 60s across portions of
southeastern ND and west central MN. 

Tonight, cool air advection continues as surface high pressure
settles over the Northern Plains. Cloud cover and the very warm
air mass in place will keep lows around the freezing mark and
above seasonal averages, however. Temps will remain above average
in the upper 40s to low 50s into Monday as southwesterly flow
aloft continues, although a weak shortwave approaching the ND/SD
border will bring some clouds and a chance for some light rain in
that area. Still not a lot of moisture to work with, but mid 
level frontogenesis along with the synoptic forcing from the 
shortwave will produce a chance for some rain to reach the ground
south of the I-94 corridor Monday afternoon. 

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Sun Nov 7 2021

Impacts across the extended period are dependent upon the track of a 
deep H5 low that is expected to develop by mid-week. Temperatures 
will be falling through the period as cooler air is pulled down out 
of Canada during the passage of the aforementioned H5 low. Impacts 
could range from minimally impactful, in the case that we see a 
longer exposure to higher temperatures and rain, to moderately 
impactful in the case where cooler temperatures change rain over to 
snow a bit sooner.

Monday night through Tuesday night, quiet weather prevails across 
much of the region with lows in the upper 20s and highs in the 40s 
to low 50s. Clouds will be on the increase Tuesday afternoon in 
advance of the mid-week system. Precipitation chances increase 
Tuesday night for the Devils Lake region, with a mix of rain and 
snow possible after midnight. 

For Wednesday, PoPs continue to increase across the area through the 
morning, with a rain/snow mix for areas north of Highway 2 and rain 
to the south. By midday, all areas of the CWA should be seeing rain 
as temperatures climb into the 40s due to warm air advection out of 
the southeast. As the low passes eastward, winds will shift and 
bring down much cooler air out of the northwest heading into the 
evening and overnight hours Wednesday into Thursday morning. This is 
where uncertainty still remains regarding how quickly this system 
moves eastward. 

Rain is expected to change over to snow from northwest to southeast 
as we head into Thursday morning, with most areas seeing either snow 
or a rain/snow mix by midday. Some areas may change back to rain 
during the afternoon, however, temperatures will generally be 
falling throughout the day, thus any change in timing or track could 
change this significantly. As for accumulations, snow will struggle 
to accumulate at first, with totals heavily dependent upon longer 
exposure to higher snowfall rates. The area most likely to see 
higher impacts will be the northern Red River Valley, eastward into 
northwestern Minnesota given the current track.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with light
south-southeast winds around 5kt thorugh Sunday morning shifting
to the north then west as a cold front moves through the region.
Winds may increase to around 10kt at times.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...Lynch
AVIATION...DJR