730 
FXUS61 KBGM 070547
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
147 AM EDT Sun Nov 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Extended period of dry and mostly clear weather continues with 
high pressure in control. Morning lows will be quite chilly 
under clear skies, but a warming trend will allow daytime 
temperatures to climb well above average for the second half of
the weekend and right into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Staying clear out so far with patchy fog just starting to appear
over portions of the Delaware and Susquehanna basins. 
Otherwise, quite a range in temperatures so far with the upper 
20s to lower 30s across most of the area. However, the Finger 
Lakes and syracuse metro remain in the mid and upper 30s. By the
early morning hours, we'll be ranging in the lower 20s in the 
coldest spots to the lower 30s in the warmest.

High pressure remains in control for Sunday. After the morning 
fog burns off expect sunny skies areawide once again. A light 
south winds 3-8 mph and gradual warming aloft will allow for 
highs to reach the mid to upper 50s in most locations. This is 
about 5-8 degrees above average. A narrow high pressure ridge 
remains entrenched over our forecast area Sunday night. With 
temperatures continuing to warm aloft (now around +7C at 850mb) 
we will see an even stronger, steeper low level inversion 
developing. Am expecting quite a range in overnight lows, with 
the higher hilltops 35-40 and the deeper valleys back down at 
least into the upper 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update

The short term will be fairly quiet as high pressure will remain in 
place. A weak shortwave does move through the region late Tuesday 
bringing slightly cooler air and possible some precipitation as 
well. The ECMWF and CMC show some light rain showers over our region 
Tuesday night while the GFS keeps it all to the north. There does 
appear to be just enough moisture and support to trigger some 
showers. Following the National Blend of Models (NBM), the result 
was a slight chance across the Finger Lakes and into the the Western 
Mohawk Valley and Tug Hill Plateau regions.

Temperatures will be pleasant to start the work week. NBM guidance 
was trending warmer on Monday. For this update, went a degree higher 
than NBM for Monday as skies will be mostly clear and 850mb temps 
will be nearing double digits. This resulted in highs in the upper 
50s to mid 60s. The lows Monday night will be in the 30s and 40s, 
Temperatures Tuesday will be in the upper 50s to low 60s with lows 
in the 40s for most.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM Update

Midweek should be dry but a system at the end of the week will bring 
an end to the dry stretch.

A ridge of high pressure moves into the region Wednesday morning, 
bringing an end to any showers that developed the night before. Dry 
conditions are expected through at least Thursday with another 
warming trend to finish out the week. A low pressure system in 
Manitoba will drag a cold front across the Central US and into the 
Northeast late in the week. With temperatures still quite warm, rain 
showers are expected with the arrival of this system. Due to timing 
difference between models, the NBM was used for PoPs but limited 
them to no more than 60 percent as the NBM seemed a bit high being 
this far out. This solution introduces a chance of showers Thursday 
night with the best chance on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR continues at all terminals for the forecast period with
clear skies and light winds. However, the exception continues 
to be KELM with valley fog/freezing fog likely developing over 
the next couple of hours. MVFR and occasional IFR restrictions 
are expected after 08Z, then IFR will be likely through from the
pre-dawn hours until shortly after sunrise as fog gradually 
mixes out. Winds remain light out of the south/southeast, 
peaking at around 5kts during the afternoon. 

Outlook... 

Sunday night through Wednesday...Brief river valley fog 
possible during late night/early morning hours at KELM, 
otherwise VFR with an extended period of dry weather and mostly 
clear skies.

Thursday...Partly sunny and mainly VFR expected. Breezy south
winds 10-20 kts and gusty at times.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJM/MDP
NEAR TERM...HLC/MJM
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...HLC