404 
FXUS64 KLCH 070201
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
901 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Blanket of stratocu acrs LA has been rapidly diminishing this
evening, leaving clear skies over the area. This has allowed 
temperatures to quickly fall since sunset, slightly faster than 
hourly temperature grid fcst indicates. Despite this, overnight 
lows appear to be on track at the current time, with lows around 
40 north to lower/middle 40s south. Conditions still appear to 
be favorable for areas of fog/stratus to develop overnight. While
patchy dense fog will be possible in some spots, will hold off on
Advisory at this time given some uncertainty regarding timing and
spatial extent. 

Other than adjustments to hourly T grids, fcst is in good shape 
this evening. Also, don't forget that Daylight Saving Time ends 
tonight. Be sure to set your clocks back one hour before going to 
bed!

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 556 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings continue for AEX/LFT, but expected to clear within
the next couple hours, with clearing after sunset at these
terminals. Big concern overnight will be the re-development of 
LIFR visibility/ceilings for C and SW LA which will likely give 
AEX and LCH terminals in dense fog forming before daybreak. Latest
shortterm guidance continues to show this, thus kept this 
inherited forecast. For BPT/LFT/ARA, not showing the dense fog but
with clear skies and calm winds, likely to see some patchy
radiational fog, thus placed the tempo group from 10-14z for MVFR
visibility. After 15z Sunday, visibility and ceilings expected to
improve to VFR with east winds around 5 kts.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 PM CDT Sat Nov 6 2021/ 

SHORT TERM [Tonight through Monday]...

Generally dry weather amid a gradual warming trend is expected for
the rest of the weekend into early next week, as high pressure at
the surface and aloft slowly build east into the area. 

Cloud cover has proven significantly more stubborn than
anticipated, with roughly the eastern third to one half of the
forecast area still shrouded in stratus. Those pieces of short 
range high resolution guidance which have thus far handled this
event relatively well (including the HRRR and NAMNest), do
eventually show clearing taking place during the early to mid
evening hours. Meanwhile, these same models depict another round
of fog/low stratus formation across a good part of the inland
forecast area late tonight, save mainly for coastal SE TX and SC 
LA. Given their performance this afternoon along with the 
generally favorable synoptic environment (good radiational 
cooling), have leaned the forecast in this direction and inserted 
patchy to areas of fog in the grids. It should also be noted that 
there is also decent agreement with this scenario from numerical 
guidance. The fog/stratus is forecast to erode tomorrow morning, 
and fingers crossed there is not another repeat of stubbornly 
hanging on through the day. Should the clearing occur as expected,
highs tomorrow will climb to around 70. 

Fog development is also possible SUN night into MON morning, as
good radiational cooling is once again expected along with some
semblance of a light return flow beginning. Temperatures will also
be not quite as cool, with lows in the lower 40s north to
mid/upper 40s along and south of the I-10 corridor. A more 
prevalent southerly flow is expected to develop Monday as the SFC 
high shifts a little east of the area, with afternoon highs
gaining another few degrees, topping out in the lower 70s.

13 

LONG TERM [Tuesday through Saturday]...

By Tuesday the ridge aloft and at the surface will be shifting into 
the southeast states and the north central/northeast gulf coast. 
This will allow dewpoints and temperatures to modify into Wednesday 
as the flow becomes onshore. A short wave will dig into the southern 
plains Wednesday and into the Lower MS Vally Thursday swinging a 
cold front through the local area. While most of the support will 
remain removed, showers and a few thunderstorms may be possible 
Thursday as the boundary moves through. Dry and cool conditions are 
expected for next weekend.

05

MARINE...
Light to moderate offshore flow will continue into Monday as high
pressure prevails over the northwest gulf. By late in the day 
Monday, a gradual turn to onshore flow will commence as low 
pressure develops across the central plains. Rain chances will 
begin to increase as a frontal boundary approaches on Thursday.

13

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$